Do US airdrops cast a shadow on potential Israeli Rafah operation?

Over the weekend, the US carried out its first airdrop of humanitarian aid to Gaza – more than 30,000 meals – in cooperation with the Royal Jordanian Air Force. US President Joe Biden has given his support for it following a stampede near food trucks where over 100 Palestinians were killed on Thursday. The airdrops follow the increasing use of airdrops by Jordan and several other countries.

However, the US’s involvement may cast a spotlight on Israel’s next steps in Gaza. Because the humanitarian situation in northern Gaza is so dire it requires airdrops, it will raise questions about how a potential Rafah operation might play out, with the dense population and mounting humanitarian issues. The US involvement in Gaza is increasing, and this can have major ramifications, including upping the pressure on Israel and leading to more scrutiny over future operations.

The decision by the US to conduct an airdrop is an important development in the war. The US has supported Israel’s campaign against Hamas since the terrorist group’s massacre on October 7.

However, this has come with some caveats. While the White House has acted to block UN resolutions condemning Israel or calling for a one-sided ceasefire, Israel has been urged to conduct a less intense campaign in Gaza since early December. The result has been a relatively slow campaign in southern Gaza that has led to most of the civilian population fleeing to Rafah, near the border with Egypt. This is also where the last major Hamas bastion is, and where the remaining hostages are presumed to be hidden.

Now, a new factor has entered this already complex situation: With an estimated 300,000 Gazans in northern Gaza, it has become difficult to access humanitarian aid.

The humanitarian situation in northern Gaza has now reached a crisis point – the stampede disaster is an example – so now the US might feel more obligated to act, which could lead to more systematic involvement. This could increase dependence on US airdrops and more complexities for Israel in Gaza.

The airdrops are coming from several countries, including the UK and Jordan, which is leading the effort. In essence, Israel has outsourced this part of the conflict to these countries, including France and Egypt, due to the way the war has been conducted so far.

Israel didn’t want to set up internally displaced persons (IDP) camps for civilians or manage the civilian aspect of Gaza with a special authority. The government also didn’t want the Palestinian Authority controlling things. This left a power vacuum.

Hamas likes the power vacuum and is trying to return to northern Gaza. It also thrives on Palestinian suffering by holding it up as an example of why it is the necessary de-facto ruler of Gaza.

Some have compared the Gaza war to the war against ISIS, but when the war on ISIS was conducted, the civilians were separated from ISIS and allowed to flee to IDP camps. There has been no orderly attempt to do that in Gaza.

This leaves the airdrops as an example of the difficulties that Israel will face going forward in Gaza. Any desire by Israel to ask people in Rafah to move will be met with questions about what happened in the north.

If northern Gaza becomes so chaotic that it requires airdrops and people are stampeding trucks due to hunger – or to get food or other supplies before it is stolen by Hamas – many questions will be asked about what happens if a million people have to leave Rafah. In addition, it means the US could be called upon more and more to be involved in Gaza, potentially setting up a situation with the US and Israel at odds over the next steps there.