To move beyond Oct. 7 failings, current gov’t must be replaced

Former Shin Bet director Nadav Argaman, at a conference of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on Thursday, repeated calls he has made to replace the Netanyahu government so that the country could move on from past failures, including Oct. 7.

His desire to replace the current government extended far beyond Netanyahu to include the ultra-Orthodox (haredi) political parties, which he said should not be allowed to hold public service positions if they have not performed IDF or national service.

He said that the makeup of the current government, which is alienated from Israel’s Western allies and ignores the Palestinian issue, is what prevents normalization with the Saudis and the consolidation of an Israel-Sunni alliance against Iran.

Like former Mossad director Tamir Pardo, who also spoke at the conference, Argaman said there was never a way to fully deter Hamas.

He criticized Netanyahu and past Israeli governments for rejecting numerous requests by the Shin Bet, including from himself, to assassinate Gaza Chief Yahya Sinwar and the rest of Hamas’s leadership.

Argaman said he supported current Shin Bet director Ronen Bar’s decision to press forward with a probe into where the agency erred regarding the Oct. 7 disaster.

Pardo said that if a terror group like Hamas continues to exist, it cannot be deterred and will continue to constitute a threat and that anyone who thinks they can carry out a “military campaign against a terror group” to end them has lost their way.

Israel has held “foolish” expectations regarding Hamas, he said. “There is no deterrence against a terror organization. There are only two options: either it exists or it does not exist. If it exists, there is no deterrence. They might take a hit in the head, but then they will just cut their losses, switch over their weapon magazines, and attack again.”

Pardo said that another option would be to try to turn a terror group into a political group, as was done in Ireland. He noted that the Palestinian Authority tried to do this to some extent in recent decades.

The former Mossad chief was very critical of Israel’s pre-Oct. 7 “conceptual framework” for deterring Hamas and equally critical of the idea that Israel could eliminate Hamas with a military campaign without a political horizon.

Furthermore, he warned that if large numbers of Palestinians were starving or underfed, it would come back to haunt Israel regarding its standing in the world long beyond whatever tactical victories the IDF has achieved against Hamas.

Former CIA chief David Petraeus who also spoke at the fonference, said that for Israel to beat Hamas, it must not only take apart its remaining battalions in Rafah but must get Gaza running again for Palestinian civilians. Only then, with stable food distribution, hospitals running, and an eventual return of civil society, will Israel be able to end Hamas’s source of support.

Petraeus said Israel can’t “stop until Hamas has been destroyed and cannot be reconstituted.”

In addition, he said Israel must get Gazans back to their homes, demonstrate to people that aid is being given stably, “that hospitals are functioning, that construction will return,” and that society goes back to functioning…Then you need a plan that is implemented, which keeps them from being able to reconstitute.”

DESPITE HIS SUPPORT for destroying Hamas, he said that Israel must eventually come to terms with a two-state solution with the Palestinians. Although the two-state solution has major issues, it is still the only stable way to eventually end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to Petraeus.

He added that Saudi normalization will not occur until Israel comes to terms with this reality.

Regarding Iran, Petraeus said that election-year politics are holding the US back from imposing harsher sanctions.

He stressed that immediately after the November 2024 presidential election, Washington should restart a major sanctions campaign against the Islamic Republic.

Former IDF intelligence chief and current INSS managing director Tamir Hayman said that the message that the conference’s attendees should take away is that a major change in the strategic balance with Iran, the Palestinians, and the Saudis is now possible.

He said that Israel recognized the challenges and risks but that it should push forward without looking back if it concludes that the outcome will be reorienting the region in a way that favors Israeli security interests over the long term.

Former IDF chief and current war cabinet minister Gadi Eisenkot told the conference that Iran is the big winner of the current war because it has succeeded in undermining Israel in several ways and has forced Israel to be distracted on an extended basis in fighting Tehran’s proxies.

The former IDF chief also expressed optimism that it was still possible for Israel to achieve enough of its security goals with Hezbollah to permit the northern border evacuees to return to their homes without the need for a full-blown war.