Can Gaza clans fill the vacuum left by Hamas?
Will Israel be able to work with clans as an alternative to Hamas, and restore order in Gaza?
Over the last two months several reports have indicated that Gazan clans, basically large families that have influence in certain areas, could play a role in Gaza in areas where Hamas has been defeated and there is a power vacuum.
This is one of the stories that has emerged because of an absence of a civilian authority to control parts of Gaza. Israel has preferred not to have the Palestinian Authority move into areas in Gaza where Hamas is now weak, and it’s not clear whether the PA would agree to work with Israel in this respect anyway.
This leaves few options in Gaza, in terms of controlling civilian areas. The IDF has preferred not to run civilian affairs in Gaza. That means that where there are civilians, they are generally separated from the IDF, and the IDF does not seek to control communities over the long term. So who will control these areas?
In northern Gaza there are around 300,000 Gazans. While Hamas is defeated on the surface, it continues to have elements among the population. Many people fear creating an alternative to Hamas, because they think Hamas will return and enact revenge.
The only powerful groups that might provide a shield against Hamas atrocities in the future are large clans, because even Hamas fears angering large families that have influence and power, and may have weapons as well.
We reported yesterday that the IDF has begun taking steps to test the rule of local Gazan clans in the Gaza Strip after Hamas is destroyed, according to a report by London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq al-Awsat on Saturday. Back in January another report said that Israel was looking into the idea of having clans administer some areas. This dovetails with the idea of having humanitarian pockets or bubbles in Gaza. However, as the stampede near the trucks last Thursday in
Gaza illustrated, no such plan has materialized.
CAN CLANS be good partners in Gaza?
Clans and tribes played a key role in Iraq after the US toppled the Saddam regime. They also helped in some cases to defeat the extremist insurgency that emerged between 2005 and 2008. This “Sunni awakening” movement took place in western Iraq in Anbar province.
Without going into all the details, it’s clear that clans and tribes were a viable alternative, but it doesn’t work in the long term. When ISIS turned up in Iraq in 2014, it easily pushed aside Sunni clans and tribes. Some held on, such as the Jughayfa tribe in Haditha and the large Shammar tribe in Iraq and Syria.
In general, tribes and clans are important, but they are not a substitute for a state or even state-like structures. They also do not weather the storm when push comes to shove. They tend to thrive when there is a severe power vacuum and people turn to relying on family connections and families to survive. But at the end of the day, organized political, military, and terrorist movements generally win out when they face off against clans and tribes in the region. There are exceptions, such as states that are themselves rooted in large tribes, or states that rely on them as pillars of parts of the defense forces, or to control certain areas of a country by coopting them.
Israel has a long history of working with local clans and groups, or tribes, in various capacities. For instance, early Israeli leaders enjoyed good relations with some Bedouin tribes in the Negev and also in the Galilee. During the 1950s and 1960s in Israel, many local traditional Arab leaders had relatively decent relations with the authorities, in contrast to some of the urban educated elites who were influenced by Arab nationalism and communism. When Israel ran the Sinai in the 1970s, Israel also enjoyed
relatively amicable relations with some of the Bedouin tribes there.
These ties only go so far, though. Gaza has changed from the 1950s and 1980s. There are clans in Gaza, and there are plenty of people who resent Hamas rule. However, the Hamas genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 shows the group is willing to commit extreme massacres, and that it enjoys impunity to do so.
It’s important in this context to consider the fact that Hamas is backed by Turkey, a member of NATO, and it is hosted by Qatar, a major non-NATO ally of the West. That means that unlike various clans in Gaza, it has extensive international support. It has partnered often with international NGOs and UN organizations, either openly or covertly, by supplying its police to “guard” aid convoys for instance.
Unlike in Iraq or Syria, where various tribal elements may have so much power that they can sit in the room with leaders of states, the clans in Gaza do not enjoy regional clout, at least not visibly.
THE CHALLENGE of Gaza’s power vacuum is one that will need to be solved. Whether various clans and tribes can play a role remains to be seen.
Hamas has shown, like ISIS, that it is willing to use any means to continue to control things. ISIS also massacred tribes when it came to power in places like the Euphrates valley in Syria. Tribes and clans can help with local governance, but they value their lives as well, and they have spent hundreds of years reading which way the wind blows in the region and making the complex choices that locals have to make in this region, where local people are
often abandoned to the whims of various regimes and groups.
The story of the clans playing a role in Gaza has had some impact in the PA. According to social media posts by expert Khaled Abu Toameh, “in blow to Hamas, several clans in the Gaza Strip pledge allegiance to the Palestinian Authority and President Mahmoud Abbas. The clans also rejected Israel’s postwar plan for administering the Gaza Strip,” he wrote on March 4.
However, the PA is not keen on this development. At the same time, the PA foreign minister warned Al-Ain media in the UAE that tensions over Gaza prior to Ramadan could lead to a regional conflict. This means that local issues in Gaza matter a lot, but also that there are now growing regional implications of the IDF strategy in Gaza.
There may be other lessons for the clans in Gaza. Egypt has a positive relationship with tribes in the Sinai Peninsula, and it has worked with them to combat extremism. Egypt has a historic interest in Gaza. It remains to be seen whether Egypt might also be a conduit for talks with the clans in Gaza.
For now, it seems fears of Hamas returning will continue to weigh on Gazans, and even outside of that calculus, the PA will have an influence campaign behind the scenes.