Hamas’s never-ending numbers game in war
The number 30,000 was always an estimate for how many fighters Hamas had.
We now know that was too low.
According to statistics provided by defense sources, Israel killed around 13,000 Hamas members. Already by early February, the IDF had wounded an additional 10,000 to such a degree that it was assessed they would not be able to return to battle; it also arrested another 2,300.
Since then, the IDF has not provided updated wounded and arrested numbers. What it has done is conglomerate and regurgitate a series of public announcements.
This means that, to date, at least 26,000 Hamas members have been put out of action by Israel, according to the tallies of the killed, wounded, and arrested.
Until Tuesday, defense sources said that there were four Hamas battalions in Rafah and two left in central Gaza – in total, around 6,000 Hamas forces.
Adding 26,000 and 6,000 would have broken the 30,000 total but could be seen as close enough to be generally accurate.
However, on Tuesday, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said that Hamas has 8,000 in Rafah. An additional 4,000 brings us up to 36,000. It doesn’t end there.
In a recent briefing, IDF sources indicated that around 70% of Hamas forces in Khan Yunis were removed from the battlefield out of an original 4,500. This would leave at least 1,300 in Khan Yunis.
There have also been reports that Hamas still has a few thousand in northern Gaza.
Adding all of these numbers up, one comes closer to a pre-war Hamas force of 40,000 or more and an estimate that it still has around 15,000 or more of its forces remaining.
None of this takes away from the fact that Israel took apart 18 of Hamas’s 24 battalions in six months and removed more than 60% of Hamas forces from the battlefield.
So, why did the IDF continue to repeat 30,000?
The truth is that even though almost all official channels repeated this number, there were always a few high officials who, in less regulated briefings, let it slip that the real number was closer to 40,000.
For this reason, when The Jerusalem Post assessed the numbers, it always provided two statistics: how many were removed and remained based on 30,000, and how many were based on 40,000?
One also must ask: Have new terrorists joined Hamas during the war in a way that the IDF has been unable to measure?
Was the decision to go with the 30,000 number made to inflate the Israeli military’s progress?
If it was due to uncertainty, why did the IDF not repeat both numbers in official channels and briefings, in line with what it says is usually a policy of being conservative about its estimates?
There has been, to date, at least one example in which the IDF seemed to cave to political pressure on the numbers. Up until February 1, defense officials said Israel had killed 10,000 Hamas forces.
By February 12, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was 12,000, although in real-time, multiple defense sources said the number was still closer to 10,000 or 10,500, and within a matter of days, the IDF shifted its total to be consistent with what Netanyahu had said publicly.
These numbers are not just part of the public relations war. Israel and the IDF need to make assessments about the war’s future based on proper statistics, not wishful thinking.
There is no question that, given an unlimited amount of time, the IDF could eventually eliminate Hamas as a fighting force for good, but time is not unlimited, as shown by the recent decision by the US not to veto the recent UNSC resolution calling for a ceasefire.
The US has made it clear that despite that vote, it still supports Israel’s goal of defeating Hamas, but the timing factor weighs heavily.