Iran is trying to sow confusion in Israel
A week of Iran’s threats to attack Israel have caused social media to lurch from one theory to another about when the Islamic Republic’s supposed attack may come. Iran has threatened to “punish” Israel since it accused the Jewish state of an April 1 strike on Damascus that killed a key IRGC commander.
In the evening of April 10, there were rumors that Iran had closed its airspace and told commercial flights to avoid the capital Tehran. There were also stories about Iran testing a missile near Qom and that it was activating new air defenses. Then there were more rumors about how Israel’s mortal enemy would carry out its strike at exactly 1:20 a.m. because this is when the US killed IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport in 2020.
There was more scrambling as well. Iran’s foreign minister called his counterparts in Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Clearly this was the prelude to Tehran’s claims that it would attack Israel. Iran’s own Fars News media outlet on April 11 made the calls seem routine.
“Amir Abdollahian and his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan held a telephone conversation on Wednesday during which they stressed the necessity of continued consultations between Tehran and Riyadh over bilateral ties, regional and international developments,” Fars News said.
The Iranian top diplomat also called UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. “The Iranian diplomat referred to the continuation of Israeli crimes in the month of Ramadan, especially during Eid Al-Fitr, against the fasting Palestinian people in the blockaded territory and the West Bank,” Fars News said. Amir Abdollahian called foreign ministers Fuad Hussein and Hakan Fidan, in Iraq and Turkey.
On the one hand, it does appear that Amir Abdollahian is working overtime. He has been in Oman and Syria over the last seven days; he has been making a lot of phone calls. However, Iranian foreign ministers are rarely made aware of their country’s military plans in advance. Former foreign minister Javad Zarif was often cut out of whatever the IRGC and the military brass were planning.
Now, it could be that the current top diplomat has been made aware that Iran intends to make a big move this week. It is less likely he knows much about it and more likely he has been told to shore up some things with his counterparts and also hear them out regarding US views on Iran’s actions. Washington is also making a full court press to not have Tehran respond and plunge the region into more escalation.
Therefore the real story of Iran in the last few days has been that it wants to test Israel and also see Israel’s response. Tehran has increasingly sought to threaten Eilat using Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, for instance. These groups have made numerous claims of using drones to target Eilat and also to target other areas of Israel.
In addition, Iran puts out other pieces of propaganda about its alleged threats to Israel, including videos circulating online that Iran will target “Haifa airport.” Which airport exactly? The very famous Israeli airport in Haifa? The Iraqi militias also claim to have targeted this airport. Why does Iran and its militias invent stories about this? Because it has to invent stories about something that gives it plausible deniability and which cannot be verified.
It may well come to pass that Iran and its militias will attempt to target Israel. The Islamic Republic has built up over the last week that to climb down now would make it look weak. However, Tehran also likes to sow confusion, which is one of its modus operandi.
It’s important to understand that Iran is very good at the rumor game and that its media, propaganda arms, various social media accounts in the region, and accounts on Telegram and elsewhere, know how to operationalize information and use it as a psychological weapon.