From Russia with influence
Historic Iran-Israel confrontation reveals deepening Russian-Iranian ties
Iran’s massive attack on Israel on Saturday night, during which it launched over 300 projectiles, including ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, has escalated tensions in the region.
Aside from being the first-ever direct assault on Israel from Iran, it is also considered the biggest attack of its kind in military history.
With the assistance of the US, UK, Jordan, and apparently also Saudi Arabia, the IDF successfully intercepted 99% of the missiles, resulting in only one injury: to a seven-year-old Bedouin girl in southern Israel.
In a statement issued after the attack, Russia’s Foreign Ministry expressed the Kremlin’s “extreme concern over another dangerous escalation in the region” and “called on all parties involved to exercise restraint.”
Despite its statement of concern, Moscow remains a significant diplomatic and military ally of Iran. Since the invasion of Ukraine two years ago, Russia and Iran have established a deep partnership; Iran has become a critical military supplier to Russia, providing unmanned aerial systems, ballistic missiles, and fighter jets.
The recent Iranian attack on Israel resembled Russia’s earlier attacks on Ukraine, during which Russia had experimented with various combinations of ballistic and cruise missiles in addition to Iranian drones.
TO DELVE deeper into the connections between the recent Iranian attack and Russia, The Media Line spoke with Prof. Meir Litvak, a senior research associate at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University; Ian Matveev, a military analyst and a member of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation team; and Nikita Smagin, an expert of the Russian International Affairs Council.
“The fact that the Iranians launched ballistic missiles is very significant. Usually, it’s a sign that you’re ready to escalate or go to war. In this regard, I was surprised,” Litvak told The Media Line, sharing his reactions to the Saturday attack.
Litvak emphasized that he was astonished that Israel achieved unprecedented intelligence success while defending itself.
“It was certainly a major technical and operational success,” he said.
However, despite the impressive strength of the IDF in alliance with the US and the UK, Litvak asserted that Israel is still not in good shape strategically vis-à-vis Iran.
Despite a tactical victory, “we are stuck in Gaza, isolated worldwide, and have lost tremendous support in the US, which is very harmful to
Israel’s long-term existence,” he said.
Litvak confirmed the strong ties between Russia and Iran and stated that Russia would be thrilled to see a war between Israel and Iran.
“Russia is now asking both sides to exercise restraint, as if it has always been a peace-loving nation,” he said sarcastically.
Matveev shared Litvak’s skepticism toward Russia, stating that the Russian diplomats’ call for “restraint” was nothing but their usual rhetoric and demagoguery.
“It is a standard hypocritical position
that has not changed since the times of the USSR and the Cold War,” Matveev told The Media Line.
According to Litvak, escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would take more American attention away from Ukraine, which would be beneficial to Russia.
“The more American attention turns to other fronts, the better it is for Russia. By the way, escalation here also raises oil prices, which Russia benefits from,” he added.
Matveev agreed with Litvak and added that it was Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s support that allowed the Iranian regime to act so aggressively.
“All this tension in the region is beneficial to Putin. It diverts both resources and attention from the war in Ukraine. The state of active war forces dictatorial regimes to huddle even closer together,” he explained.
“When fewer and fewer ‘normal’ countries want to deal with you, you have to be in a tight alliance with people who are as crazy as you are,” Matveev added.
Litvak confirmed that Russia and Iran would continue to be “good friends” and emphasized that both countries are united by their hatred for the US.
“Both still want to see the US suffering punishment,” he said.
On the other hand, Smagin emphasized that even though the current escalation might be a “beneficial background noise that distracts the global community from Ukraine,” a full-scale war might not benefit Russia.
“Russia is not interested in a ‘big war’ in the Middle East because then Russia will have to choose a side, and it [Russia] is in the Middle East, in Syria,” he explained to The Media Line.
“Russia will have to somehow participate in what is happening, but it would not like to be distracted from its main front in Ukraine,” added Smagin.
“I think that, to a greater extent, Russia will be an observer who will watch the development of events,” he said.
According to Smagin, a full-scale war in the Middle East would call into question Russia’s many economic issues, projects, and calculations regarding the region.
Litvak explained that Russia already faces European resentment and doesn’t seek favors in Europe and America.
“Russia is trying to gain popularity in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia,” he said, adding that even though Russia and Iran have a strong connection, Russia most likely won’t be involved in this conflict.
“If the Russians had wanted to do much against Israel, they would have done it long ago,” he said.
Matveev explained that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East with the direct involvement of Iran might affect the supply of weapons from Iran to Russia.
“Of course, Iran will need to rebuild its drone stockpile at least, and they won’t be able to give Putin everything he wants,” he said.
Smagin believes that if the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies and becomes a full-scale war or involves a series of drone strikes by Iran, it could have a significant impact on Iran’s ability to supply drones to Russia.
“Iran itself will need them [drones]. At the same time, I would not overestimate this, because Russia has already established the production of the most used Iranian drones, Shahet-136,” he said.
According to Smagin, Russia is slowly losing its influence in the Middle East, as it becomes increasingly dependent on other countries.
“Everything that has happened in the economy and in both military-technical terms and politics, starting from the beginning of 2022, weakens Russia’s position in the Middle East,” he asserted.
“Russia is becoming heavily dependent on Turkey, on the United Arab Emirates in terms of prospects, and on Iran in terms of military-technical cooperation. In this sense, of course, Russia has become much more limited in the choice of options that are possible in the Middle East,” concluded Smagin.