A Caribbean AI ecosystem?

On December 10 United nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), in partnership with the Broadcasting Commission, hosted the first in a series of online webinars titled Caribbean Artificial Intelligence (AI) Forum. The purpose is to contribute to the global debate on AI strategies to explore this technology and how it can be harnessed for regional sustainable development.

Why should the public be interested in Ai?

AI is one of those technologies that defy a single universally agreed definition. A simple yet comprehensive definition is offered by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): AI is defined as the ability of machines and systems to acquire and apply knowledge and to carry out intelligent behaviour. In other words, machines and/ or software acting humanly, making decisions from data without human intervention.

The underline logic of AI are algorithms. It is a general purpose technology (like electricity or the Internet) meaning that it can and will be widely used and affect the whole society. It is also socio-technical, meaning that it will affect how people interact with people and how technology influences our values, lifestyles, and challenges what is considered “free will”.

In recent years AI has been advancing at a phenomenal pace. We are already interacting with AI in many consumer goods, oftentimes without knowing it. See the table for some examples.

Deloitte, the international audit and consultancy firm, estimated that the global market for AI in 2020 is US$2.43 trillion, and by 2025 is expected to grow to US$6.4 trillion. The leading industries are manufacturing, telecommunications, natural resources, consumer products, health care, and banking.

There is fierce global competition among the top countries in the AI market: USA, China (both way ahead of the others), India, Japan, and Israel. A lot of the political and economic jostling between the USA and China is directly related to this. A case in point is the USA’S attempt to ban and acquire Tiktok and its secret AI.

Why should JAMAICA And regional governments be interested in Ai?

In 2017 Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking to students during a national open lesson, said: “Artificial intelligence is the future not only of Russia but of all mankind. There are huge opportunities but also threats that are difficult to foresee today. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” He added that it would be better to prevent any particular pair of hands from achieving a monopoly in the field.

Also in 2017, China unveiled a plan known as the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan with the ambitious goal of leading the world in AI by 2030. If we only take Deloitte’s market estimation, Putin’s prediction, and China’s ambition it is fair to conclude that AI is a frontier technology with vast opportunities that are likely to exacerbate the technology and the wealth divide. Regional governments must respond in a proactive and innovate way to these digital market changes.

I want to offer a framework for a Caribbean response. This framework is anchored in regional integration; hence, the first pillar requires an ecosystem approach. First countries should not try to respond independently. The regional market is too small and fragmented with approximately 17 million people spanning 13 countries with accounting for approximately 10 million people with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of less than US$1,000.

Additionally, individual region countries will not have large data set to facilitate deep learning in AI. The countries of the Caribbean Single Market and Economy have proposed a regionally harmonised information and communications (ICT) policy, as well as legal and regulatory regime. This is to support, among other things, the provision of seamless, ubiquitous, and consistent ICT services. This policy by the Caribbean Community (Caricom) provides the basis for a regional integrated ecosystem approach.

I am already hearing criticisms and protests of Caricom. This criticism is warranted and well-earned. Caricom has been criticised for its glacial pace in policy development, implementation, and mistrust among member states. Explanation or excuse for this has been attributed to the region’s diverse geography, differences in wealth among member states, and the inability to overcome the vestiges of colonialism in which inter-communication — not to mention integration — was discouraged.

The ICT community generally views Caricom with optimistic cynicism. The policy itself is solid and will allow the region to take an ecosystem approach. However, reinventing the wheel will be tantamount to doing nothing. The question should be: How can we make Caricom work?

The second pillar is associated with the harmonised, ecosystem approach — and this was proposed by Caricom — is to have a robust national and regional broadband infrastructure. The purpose is for, among other things, the facilitation of access to services and overcoming physical barriers to business, collaboration, and innovation. In addition to AI, fifth generation (5G) cellular will be integral in this infrastructure.

The third pillar is to determine priority areas for development. In 2010 the Council for Trade and Economic Development (COTED) identified seven priority areas for regional development — professional services; ICT; financial services; health and wellness; culture, entertainment and sports; tourism; and educational services. Again, there may be criticism about these areas for development but we should not be delusional in our abilities to impact areas in which we have very little capability. The focus should be leveraging AI in these industries.

The fourth pillar is to determine the type of enterprises to focus on. The only way to reduce poverty in a sustainable way is to promote economic growth through wealth creation. Small- and medium-size enterprises (SME) are the major source of income regionally. They are also the breeding ground for entrepreneurs and a provider of employment. To leverage AI in SMES, companies will need improved access to finance, tax incentives, and likely capital subsidies. SMES in the region have been accused of a lack of innovation, and so regional universities and educational institutions must address this problem.

The fifth pillar is the modernisation of education and training. The digital economy will require new and different skills, so a major investment in education will be required. I will briefly examine education at three different levels and also incorporate the labour market:

At Level 1 there needs to be the promotion of digital literacy to all citizens. Regionally there needs to be a labour market assessment to determine needed skills based on projections and engage in an effort to correct skills mismatch. There will also need to be an upskilling and retraining programme for workers and to provide opportunities for lifelong learning. Within the schools and universities, the orientation of teaching needs to change from teacher-centred to student-focused. Some of this is already taking place, but it needs to be accelerated.

The novel coronavirus pandemic has taught us that there needs to be online and offline integration in teaching. This must be continued. In addition to the focus on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), creativity and entrepreneurship must also be included early in the education process.

Level two of education focuses on research and innovation. The region generally does not have a research and innovation culture in education or companies. All universities should have an innovation hub linked to AI and to the priority areas for regional growth and development. These universities should also have incubators which are able to move innovative ideas to market. Because there is no research without funding, policymakers should support the

development of public-private partnerships between universities and business, with co-investment.

Level three is more futuristic focusing on AI in education with intelligent adaptive education (IAE). According to Deloitte, IAE will restructure the relationship among players in the education industry ecosystem, improve students’ learning efficiency, and redefine the education industry.

The final pillar to be examined is privacy, trust and ethics. According to UNESCO, the design, creation, and use of AI and related technologies present opportunities to enhance access to the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) to build inclusive knowledge societies and to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGS).

However, as with other scientific and technological developments, the current use and future evolution of AI could also have negative consequences for fundamental rights and freedoms, and these should be countered or mitigated.

Actual and potential risks of AI include discrimination, bias, inequity, unfairness, and lack of clarity in decision-making. David Leslie, of the Alan Turing Institute of Policy Programme, in explaining the opaqueness of decisions of AI, said: When humans do things that require intelligence we hold them responsible for the accuracy, reliability, and soundness of their judgements. Moreover, we demand of them that their actions and decisions be supported by good reasons, and we hold them accountable for their fairness, equity, and reasonableness of how they treat others.” This doesn’t apply to AI, and this could be very problematic. There are significant parts of the AI community that sees its emergence as an existential threat to humanity. As a consequence, a whole body of ethical guidelines have emerged.

The European Union, in its white paper on AI, recommends that in order to counter the negative consequences there should be an ecosystem of trust. This is similar to recommendations made by UNESCO. This would involve the development and use of human rights-based framework for AI under the prism of international human rights standards to set clear guidelines to avoid violations, including the rights to freedom of expression, privacy and equality. Caricom has proposed a policy for effective secure technology and management systems. I am recommending that this human rights framework should be incorporated in Caricom’s policy.

Violations of these policy guidelines needs to have consequences. Thillo Hagedorff, who has done research on AI ethics, explains: “AI ethics lacks a reinforcement mechanism. Deviations from the various codes of ethics have no consequences. And in cases where ethics is integrated into institutions it mainly serves as a marketing strategy. Furthermore, empirical experiments show that reading ethics guidelines has no significant influence on the decision-making of software developers. Especially economic incentives are easily overriding commitment to ethical principles and values.”

The disruptive potential of AI is clear, present, and will have far reaching consequences throughout the Caribbean region and across the world. The prosperity created from other recent digital advances have seen wealth concentrated in a small percentage of individuals, companies, and countries. This is likely to continue and exacerbate existing inequalities. Several regions — Europe, Asia, Africa — have started to develop policies on AI to support sustainable development. This means that Caricom’s leaders will have to consider what will be the role and scope of AI in the region’s sustainable development. Will we just be consumers or do we want to move up the food chain and also be producers, wealth creators? If the latter is the focus, which it should, we must build regional capacity.

While I have recommended that Caricom be the standard-bearer, I am conscious of its inertia. As small island developing states we will face many challenges; however, independent states should not consider going it alone. It will require making Caricom more responsive; taking an ecosystem approach in integrating the ICT infrastructure; harmonising regional ICT policy, legal and regulatory regimes; concentrating on industries in which we have a competitive advantage; and modernising education and training industry. Our growth and development must be inclusive and the populace must have trust in the AI and other technological systems.