EPOC remains cautiously optimistic despite COVID-19 uncertainties
Says fiscal targets remain on track and international reserves buoyant
The economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC), in its latest review of the country’s macro fiscal programme, has maintained a positive outlook for the economic reform programme (ERP) despite the uncertainties surrounding the novel coronavirus pandemic.
Speaking at a quarterly press briefing held yesterday, Keith Duncan, chairman of EPOC, said that based on the reports presented at the last EPOC meeting held on December 4, the country was on track in meeting all its fiscal quantitative targets as set out under the programme as the work continues.
“The implementation of the majority of the Priority Actions for the ERP continues to be delayed relative to the timelines established in November 2019, due in large part to the impact of the pandemic.
“While the timelines and scope of some of these action items are to be reviewed, the work continues,” he said.
In outlining fiscal performance to date, Duncan said that the various revenue, expenditure and fiscal balances remain on target.
International reserves also remains buoyant due to the increases seen in gross international reserves (GIR) and net international reserves (NIR) over the last quarter as a result of net remittance inflows and foreign exchange earnings.
“Net international reserves (NIR) increased from US$2.65 billion at September 7 to at US$2.96 billion as at November 30,” Duncan noted.
He, however, said that despite these positive movements, EPOC continues to be cautiously optimistic of economic performance as the current lag in tourism recovery and global and domestic economic conditions continues to cast uncertainty and affect gross domestic product (GDP) performance.
“As COVID-19 continues to disrupt Jamaica’s trading partners, its impact on the economy remains highly uncertain and could pose significant downside risks to our macroeconomic targets and recovery projections,” Duncan said further underscoring that the economy was, however, not expected to recover to PRE-COVID levels until FY2023/24 or beyond.
Duncan further called on government and citizens and all other stakeholders to play their part in slowing the spread of the virus so that economic activity can be increased .
“As Standard and Poor’s (S&P Global) affirmed Jamaica’s long-term rating at B+, the agency [also] gave us a negative outlook, as it fears that the effects of COVID-19 could be more severe and prolonged.
“EPOC is therefore urging all citizens to remain cautious, disciplined and diligent in adhering to the infection control protocols, and in doing so protect themselves, their families, their communities, their livelihoods and the economy,” he said.