Risk analysis and the homicide rate
We have ended another year which reflects a high, but slightly improved homicide statistic. I have said before how ridiculous and banal a method this is of assessing crime control and will dedicate an article or two to its analysis.
Today, though, I want to speak to one part of the murder rate alone – that being the possibility of dividing it between killers and real victims.
In my dissertation carried out for my PHD, I studied 381 murders in the St Catherine south police division over four years.
The study had several aims, one of which was to determine the degree of gang activity engaged in, if any, by the victims. The results indicated that 78 per cent of the victims were participants at various levels in gang activity, ranging from membership to affiliation.
There where various functions carried out by these victims prior to their death, ranging from murder to often just simply membership. Of course, this is limited to what could be unearthed and the limitations of police data and investigations.
There is no reason to believe that this same cycle could be assumed nationally. Based on this, I am once again asking for the homicide statistics to be divided into gang homicide versus normal persons’ homicide.
Some would say that murder is murder and dividing them has no benefit. Well I disagree. My exposure likely impacts my beliefs on this subject. Exposure impacts opinion every time.
For example, I spent my final seconds of 2020 trying to stop some dummies in Naggo Head from killing each other whilst you may have been in church or sipping champagne. You can likely school me on the dynamics of the Bible or what liquor to avoid. After the 113 murder scenes I have endured this year I can tell you ‘murder isn’t murder’.
Children’s murders, elderly persons’ murders, hard-working persons’ murders, innocent persons’ murders are different from killers murdering each other.
This in one major element, the former four groups did nothing to contribute to it. They are victims in both the specific of the legal definition and in the moral appreciation of their experience.
There are also some other very important and practical aspects that are impacted, such as risk analysis, crime prevention policies and reputation. Let me explain: The 1200-plus person body count that occurred in 2020 gives the impression that Jamaicans are killing each other at an extraordinary rate, when this is not quite true.
Gangsters who happen to be Jamaican and live in Jamaica are killing each other at an extraordinary rate. There is only about 10,000 of them out of custody at any one time and based on the 78 per cent theory, they killed 930 of their own kind this year.
Let me break down the life and death of a Jamaican gangster. From late teens they are participants in border line shootings, which are followed by robberies and soon murders that are typified by attacking fellow fools who find themselves unarmed or unaware. The cycle usually ends up with them being caught in a similar situation and coming to the same end they delivered to like persons.
However, during this cycle they also will kill a defenceless old woman, or child, or hard-working citizen. But this is likely only in one of five of the incidents. That is still a lot if it is your innocent relative in the batch.
By the time one of these killers are killed they may be responsible for several fellow gangsters’ murders, so that is why so many murders are solved when they themselves become a statistic.
The reason why it is important that this is expressed in our very well-promoted homicide statistic is so that we can analyse where our real threats exist and not drop us all into one big general statistic.
The real danger to the regular guy or girl is homicide during robbery or domestic issues. By the lack of surgical analysis you find yourself protecting yourself from drive-by shootings when no one is interested in shooting you in one. You are not a gang member. However, you are in danger of being robbed for your iphone and this could be fatal if you resist. So if you know this you can start hiding your phone or maybe just give it up and buy another.
This also impacts the domestic conflicts. You may want to consider how dangerous is that jealous imbecile you are dating with his licensed gun or that cousin who will not stop sharpening his machete after he smokes his weed and threatens you.
Ultimately, what I am saying is we need to ensure the public knows where their threat is coming from.
The gangster is the ultimate parasite. He kills us, as well as his own kind. But the risk analysis for both groups are not the same.
My aforementioned study reflected that in some communities in southern St Catherine, a gang member is up to 160 times more likely than a regular citizen to be the victim of murder. This could be brought out if we separated the statistic. This may stop the least dumb of the future membership from joining. Who knows.
Do you realise that you have almost the same chance or higher to be killed in a road accident in our country as you do to be killed by a gunman? Yes. That is, of course, if you are not a gang member.
There are 300 people, on average, killed annually in road accidents and that is sort of random. Taxi drivers do not choose who they will kill, it is really just bad luck.
Then there are bad roads, loose animals, or drunks. Could happen to any of us. Well, it is just about that number of non-gang members killed annually also.
Jamaica is presented to the world as a country at war with each other. This simply is not true. The war is simply taking place here. The participants are a small group of mendicants at war with each other.
If you put this same group on the North Pole they would be fighting each other and the polar bears would not give a crap. They are a microcosm of our country and their war is not ours.
Neither should it be our identity.
Feedback: drjasonamckay@ gmail.com