COVID-19 death numbers ‘strange’ — Guy
MP says death rate not slowing; queries local presence of Delta variant
OPPOSITION Spokesperson on Health Dr Morais Guy described as “strange” statistics showing the number of positive COVID-19 cases declining, as well as the positivity rates and hospitalisations, with fatalities not having followed suit.
In a question-and-answer session during yesterday’s sitting of the Lower House, Guy demanded that health officials explain the reasons there had been no slowing of the fatality rate of Covid-19-infected Jamaicans despite the number of infections showing decline.
“What we have seen over the past three to four weeks is a weekly fatality rate of about eight to 10 per cent. Even when you take those numbers that were previously under investigation, we get them at eight to ten per cent,” said Dr Guy.
He contrasted this rate with numbers earlier in the year.
“[At] the height of the spike that we had in March/april of this year, the weekly fatality rate was under one per cent. We are seeing now where we are having eight to 10 per cent fatality rate each week. So eight to 10 persons of the numbers that we see on a weekly basis are dying, and the question that needs to be asked is what is happening in the public health sector that we are seeing now more deaths per number of patients positive than we saw earlier on. What has changed?” Dr Guy questioned.
The question is one which Health Minister Dr Christopher Tufton could only offer “two possible explanations”, admitting that the Government was equally concerned.
Addressing the questions he said, “The issues around deaths is an important one to raise from at least one perspective, and that is to remind the country about the seriousness of this virus; because there is a tendency, particularly when there is some relaxation, for persons to view the risk at hand to be not as severe. I want to say that it is important that all Jamaicans recognise that this virus can kill you still,” Dr Tufton stressed.
He added: “There are two possible explanations for the deaths, and the deaths are concerning to the public health team. It is something I have discussed with them, [and] we have reported to Cabinet on it.”
The minister offered that they figures needed to be analysed:
“Firstly, a part of the increased numbers are the cleared-up rates of deaths that have taken place and then have to be interrogated, and then the team would rule on whether COVID was the cause of death or otherwise. So some of those numbers are historical, even they may be reported on a particular date. I can’t give the breakdown, but that has accounted for some of that,” he said.
The health minister said the other factor was one which remained a challenge external to the ministry and health officials.
“The other, which is a worrying trend, is the fact that we are seeing increasingly late presentations to medical institutions for treatment of persons who have contracted or who are carrying the virus. We are seeing persons who have symptoms and try to self-medicate and end up at the hospital when they are in an advanced state of illness; and that is unwise,” Dr Tufton said.
“That has contributed to the severity of the cases in hospitals and the ultimate consequences of death.”
He said that the immediate response of Jamaicans to being infected had significantly slowed.
“In the early stages there was fear and persons wanted to make sure, even if it was a little sniffle, now it’s as if persons feel like they can manage. That I think explains some of the high numbers, but nevertheless it is important to us,” he added.
“We need to have an answer as to why the death rate is so high, because if we continue at this rate what will happen is that we will end up in a situation where the death rate exceeds what is happening internationally in terms of the number of COVID cases,” Dr Guy warned.
The Ministry of Health and Wellness, via its website, yesterday said there had been 35 new COVID-19 cases and three deaths confirmed yesterday. It said one of the deaths had previously been under investigation.
On Saturday it reported a death toll of 16, but noted that three of those deaths had been previously under investigation. Those deaths, indicated the ministry, included individuals over 60 years of age, the eldest being a 99-year-old man from Kingston and St Andrew.
On Friday last week three deaths were reported, while on Wednesday there were seven, four of which the ministry said were previously under investigation.
Reports yesterday show there have been a total 1,134 deaths from the virus, with the Ministry of Health indicating that there are an overall 112 deaths under investigation.
Up to press time last night there had been 1,061 recent recoveries, bringing the total recoveries so far to 41,090, with 36 new active cases bringing to 8,210 the total active cases in the island.
Dr Guy charged that the other part of the puzzle that needed to be investigated was whether, even in the absence of any confirmation, the Delta variant was present on the island.
“We have been told samples are now not only sent to CARPHA [Caribbean Public Health Agency], that they are being sent to PAHO [Pan American Health Organization] labs in Brazil and Mexico, and to the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention], and we are expecting results to come back, but the reality is that we are seeing more deaths, and that demands an answer from the Government as to what is happening in the care of these COVID cases,” he said further.