Sitting pretty or sitting duck?
IGarfield Higgins is an educator, journalist, and a senior advisor to the minister of education & youth. Send comments to Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com. f Prime Minister Andrew Holness, the leader of the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), stays the entire five years of his present term, our 19th parliamentary election will be held somewhere near September 2025. I have a hunch, though, that Holness will ‘ring the bell’ (think Edward Seaga) before 2025.
Over the last three decades, on the average, our prime ministers have tended to “fly di gate” — think P J Patterson — between four years and 4½ years into their term of office. Maybe Holness will depart from the 30-year average and go earlier. Only he knows. What we all know, though, is that the JLP is leading handsomely in the polls right now.
I am not surprised by this at all. Many months ago I pointed out in this space that the Mark Golding-led People’s National Party (PNP) was totally missing the pulse of the majority of the people of this country. Many months ago I also said here that Golding was weighed down by his large tin political ear. I noted here, too, that with each passing month Golding’s tin ear had grown larger. The latest scientific poll suggests that I am correct.
As I pointed out last Sunday, no amount of spinning by the PNP will lessen the reality that several scientific polls have consistently found that the rickety foundations at 89 Old Hope Road are deteriorating fast.
The Gleaner’s banner headline last Tuesday, ‘JLP in lead, PNP trailing 13%; most older voters go green’, was the most recent scientific poll finding to show that Norman Manley’s party is heading downhill. The news item said, among other things: “The ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) would retain power if a general election were to be called today, widening its advantage over the Opposition
People’s National Party (PNP) and strengthening its influence over key demographic groups, including young voters.
“But even among more mature voters, 45 and older, once the backbone of political dominance, the PNP has ceded ground to the Labourites.
“Amid an increase in voter apathy, the PNP is trailing the Andrew Holness-led JLP by 13 percentage points, losing sway even in its traditional stronghold of Westmoreland that turned green in the electoral tsunami of 2020 that saw the Labourites winning 49 of 63 seats.
“An Rjrgleanercommissioned Don Anderson poll revealed that 31 per cent of electors would mark their ballot for the JLP, while 18 per cent said they would vote for the PNP.
“The grim data dovetail with the findings of other Anderson polls showing Opposition Leader Mark Golding and his party behind Holness and the JLP – results that may weigh heavily on the PNP president heading into the party’s 84th Annual Conference this weekend.”
I have a hunch that by or before next year this time our 17th local government election would have been held. Based on the trajectory that the PNP is on I believe that Mark Golding and the PNP will lose.
I believe also that the old lacerations at 89 Old Hope Road will reopen, but wider, and more infighting will then splinter the PNP even further. I think Mark Golding will be challenged for helm come 2023.
Beware complacency
Power and the prospect of staying in power often leads to a turning on of the tap of complacency. We have seen in our politics time and time again where power has caused our politicians to over imbibe from the political punch bowl.
They became so inebriated they lost the foresight and even the common sense to remove the bowl altogether.
I believe the JLP would do well to ensure that it does not become punch-drunk and repeat, for example, the errors of the Portia Simpson Miller Administration of 2011-2016. Folks are not interested in a contest of who is the greatest in the kingdom. They are not interested in the number of letters behind the name of their Member of Parliament — except those letters serve as a direct conduit to fast-tracking access to electricity, water, good roads, and other basic amenities. The youth, especially, are not keen on speeches that are devoid of tangible evidence of practical application to their short- and medium-term benefit. People are accessing information from all over the world and asking ‘why can’t I have this here in Jamaica?’
Golding and the PNP have been out in the highways and (photo: Joseph wellington)
the byways for the last many months. They keep repeating what former prime minister the late Michael Manley did 45 years ago. Many months ago I pointed out in this space that romanticising Manley, when the majority of the average voter is below age 45, was foolhardy and fantastical.
These latest scientific poll findings are showing that the PNP is continuing to lose ground with younger voters and now are losing ground with some of the older voters, who had traditionally stuck with them, as evidenced here: “The pollster said that the PNP’S strongest support is among older people aged 45 to 55, who account for 25 per cent.
“‘They have been able to maintain that, but by the same token, the gap between themselves and the Jamaica Labour Party among the older voters is four percentage points in favour of the JLP, compared to 13 percentage points overall,’ he explained.
“The JLP has 29 per cent of people backing the party in the 45-55 age group, but support for the party is highest among 25- to 34-year-olds.
“Among voters older than 55, the JLP leads the PNP 29 per cent to 24 per cent. Twenty-eight per cent in that cohort said they would not vote while 19 per cent said they were not sure.
“Anderson reported that the JLP is attracting far more young voters than the PNP, as 11 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 24 said they would vote for the PNP compared to 32 per cent who are in favour of the JLP.
“‘Among the upper income groups, 13 per cent would support the PNP compared to 42 per cent who would support the JLP. PNP is very competitive among the older age groups and definitely not competitive among the younger age group,’ Anderson said.”
Political complacency is dangerous. There is much