Homicide reduction: Can it be done again?
From 2012-2017 the murder rate in Jamaica increased by 49.4 per cent. Between 2002-2007 the murder rate increased from 1,045-1,584, an addition of 52.5 per cent. Then, from 1997-2002, homicides increased from 1,038 in 1997 to 1,045 in 2002 — a climb of less than one per cent.
Looking further, in the years 1992-1997, homicides increased from 639 in 1992 to 1,038 in 1997, an increase of 62 per cent. The years 1987-1992 saw an increase in homicides from 442 in 1987 to 629 in 1992, a 42 per cent hike.
In five five-year cycles there have been increases in the homicide rate since 1987 to 2017.
There was only one cycle in which there was a decrease, and that was 2007-2012, when the homicide rate moved from 1,584 in 2007 to 1,102 in 2012 per annum, a percentage decrease of 30 per cent.
Many attribute that to the Tivoli incursion.
Well, it has again happened over a five-year period, 20172022, when the murder rate moved from 1,647 in 2017 to 1,498 in 2022, a nine per cent decrease in homicides.
I have been conducting a study on the five-year cycles of homicides, beginning in 1987 and up to our most recent end of year figure for 2022. That is seven cycles and only two have shown reduced figures.
So I think it’s really important that we look on how this was accomplished. Why? Well most importantly, it allows us to see if we can replicate this decrease or more importantly, prevent any more large increases that could take us into massive cycles like 1992-1997.
It is also important because the persons who achieved this are not going to be around forever.
Commisioner of Police, Major General Antony Anderson, Minister of National Security Horace Chang, and several members of the police high command are within their last five-year cycle.
It is of utmost importance that we look on the policies, strategies and accomplishments that led to this decrease.
There is also that daunting possibility that the increase of 49.4 per cent that existed in the 2012-2017 period of study could have recurred, rather than achieving a decrease. If that trend had not been halted we would have vaulted the 2,000 homicides per year mark. So let’s see what they did. How did the JCF and the Government pull this off.
Well firstly, they introduced the parochial States of Emergency that put a halt on a variety of high crime zones. Most people don’t like it because most people don’t study crime.
They utilised the Zone of Special Operations (ZOSO) that also took control of selected high homicide zones.
They decimated the Clansman Gang, which included the conviction of Tesha Miller.
They used the legislation and through a partnership with the United States started extraditing scammers.
They increased vehicular mobility of the force.
Now, they were also aided by some ambient factors.
Indecom’s campaign to arrest police officers without going through the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) was halted, thus removing the demotivating effect that it caused.
There was less negative publicity from the Human Rights groups.
Employment through the call centres reduced unemployment and thus impacted the abundance of raw material available to fuel gang membership.
Now the big question is, can it be done again?
Can the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) achieve a reduced rate of homicide by 2027, as compared to 2022?
Well I think it can be done, but we have to think way out of the box.
Firstly, expand the use of parochial SOES, expand the use of ZOSO’S, remove the mandatory retirement age of senior police officers and rather expand the numbers of high command officers so it does not stagnate the career of others.
You cannot just reinvent persons with the experience and knowledge of men like DCP Fitz Bailey and DCP Clifford Blake. In fact, mandatory retirement age for any person in those elevated ranks are silly. They don’t jump fences or run down gunmen in those elevated posts. We need their mind, not their biceps.
Continue the strategy of gang decimation as it’s being pursued by the island’s CIB with the use of the Anti-gang
Legislation.
Change the Indecom Act so they become primary investigators alone and remove their oversight responsibility. It is that part of their portfolio that forces them to behave like activists. This is demotivating to the men and women putting their lives on the line daily and causes a syndrome of avoiding confrontation, thus strengthening the gangs.
You don’t hear MOCA giving press conferences saying “we know that nuff a unno a thief, but we can’t prove it”. They are not forced to because their Act allows them to be professionals.
Also, I am reasonably sure that no MOCA employee is being paid a salary by a foreign entity. The salary issue needs to be urgently addressed. Most of the Force is paid like clerks.
Create a JCF auxiliary that mirrors the Jamaica Defence Force. This entire thrust is urgent as we must reduce homicides, we must defeat the gangs.
Have you seen the most recent travel advisory for Haiti? It says “don’t go“. Not we recommend caution. Just don’t go and some terrible reasons why.
Such a travel advisory would destroy us. We need to pull this off again. We need to move past politics, personal agendas and the underscoring of victims’ rights.
We also need to commend the JCF, its leadership and its membership for this accomplishment and let them know that we’re thankful. But we need you to do it again!