Mi­nor­ity vote will take Clin­ton over the line

Jamaica Gleaner - - OPINION & COMMENTARY -


WITH JUST days to go be­fore the Novem­ber 8 United States (US) pres­i­den­tial elec­tion, most na­tional polls are show­ing a tight­en­ing of the race, in­di­cat­ing that the out­come might be a cliffhanger akin to what we saw be­tween Repub­li­can Ge­orge W. Bush and Demo­crat Al Gore in 2000.

Of course, no one will ever for­get that nail­biter where it came down to the state of Florida and its 29 elec­toral votes that pushed Bush over the edge in what is still ar­guably the most con­tro­ver­sial pres­i­den­tial race in US his­tory. We will also re­call that while Gore won the pop­u­lar vote, Bush won the ma­jor­ity of elec­toral col­lege votes, al­beit barely, and thus the White House.

I don’t think this race will mir­ror any­thing like what we saw in 2000. Not even re­motely close. Ac­tu­ally, I am pre­dict­ing a Hil­lary Clin­ton vic­tory in what could well turn out to be the big­gest land­slide since Ron­ald Rea­gan amassed 525 Elec­toral Col­lege votes in the 1984 race against his Demo­cratic chal­lenger, Wal­ter Mon­dale.

What many Trump back­ers and a num­ber of pun­dits are not tak­ing into con­sid­er­a­tion is the power of the mi­nor­ity vote and the telling ef­fect it will have on the out­come of the race. True, Trump’s num­bers on the na­tional scale are in­deed flat­ter­ing – very flat­ter­ing. But so did Mon­dale at this stage of the race in 1984. The prob­lem is that he can­not win the pres­i­dency by car­ry­ing the white vote only. No pres­i­dent in the mod­ern era of Amer­i­can pol­i­tics has won the pres­i­dency by polling the num­bers Trump is cur­rently polling among mi­nori­ties. Ac­tu­ally, the last two Repub­li­can nom­i­nees, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Rom­ney in 2012, were polling far bet­ter among blacks and His­pan­ics than Trump is cur­rently do­ing. And let us not for­get the big­gest mi­nor­ity group of all – women.


Not only is Clin­ton clob­ber­ing him among blacks, Lati­nos, Mus­lims, Asians and all the other mi­nor­ity groups; she is also beat­ing him solidly with women and with num­bers far bet­ter than what Barack Obama had against Rom­ney in 2012.

So when you tally all of these fac­tors and take an im­par­tial look at where the race is to­day, there is only one conclusion one can rea­son­ably draw. This has the mak­ing of a blowout in favour of the Clin­ton jug­ger­naut.

Don’t mind that FBI email dis­trac­tion last Fri­day and the seem­ingly new-lease-on-life ap­proach be­ing dis­played by the Trump sur­ro­gates; this race is over.

And so, like her or hate her, please get ready to usher in a new era of Amer­i­can pol­i­tics and wel­come the coun­try’s first fe­male pres­i­dent – Hil­lary Rod­ham Clin­ton. GARWIN DAVIS natchilusd@ya­hoo.com Iron­shore, St James

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