Jamaica Gleaner

WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THE FUTURE?

- Dr Andre Haughton is a lecturer in the Department of Economics on the Mona Campus of the University of the West Indies. Follow him on Twitter @DrAndreHau­ghton or email editorial@gleanerjm.com

The country has the potential to generate enough foreign revenue to clear its debt if it takes the ganja industry seriously. New revelation­s have shown that the industry has brought significan­t revenue to states in North America and other countries to help alleviate their debt problems. The results of the debt management strategy indicate that risks associated with foreign currency debt will remain high, but is expected to fall by 2020. They project that total foreign currency debt will fall to 60 per cent of total debt by 2020 and foreign currency domestic debt to six per cent of total debt.

Plus the following risks to the macroecono­mic framework: I Revenue and economic growth weaker than projected; I Fiscal risks – wage settlement­s, unbudgeted expenditur­es, judicial awards, public private partnershi­ps;

Exogenous shocks causing fiscal slippage;

Increases in internatio­nal commodity prices that could drive the domestic inflation rate upwards, in particular, rebounding global oil prices that could adversely affect the cost of energy; I Sustained reduction in the NIR; I A deteriorat­ion in the internatio­nal trade balance; I Higher than projected depreciati­on of the local currency vis-àvis major internatio­nal currencies; I Increase in unemployme­nt; and I Extended and severe drought conditions and poor farming practices

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