Expect near or above-normal hurricane season

THE METEOROLOGICAL Service Division wishes to endorse the forecast of the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as its official Seasonal Outlook for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast is for a 75 per cent chance that the hurricane season will be near- or abovenormal.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and NOAA hurricane forecasters predict a 35 per cent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 per cent chance of a nearnormal season, and a 25 per cent chance of a belownormal season.

Specifically, the Outlook calls for a 70 per cent probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

10-16 named storms (which

Iincludes Subtropical Storm Alberto)

I 5-9 hurricanes

I 1-4 major hurricanes (of category three or higher)

– Predictions from respected researchers at the NOAA’s National Hurricane Centre.

2018 ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM NAMES

Starting in 1953, the National Hurricane Centre originally named all tropical storms. While you can still find a list of storm names on their website, the names are now maintained and updated by the World Meteorological Organization.

Each list of names is used in a six-year rotation. That means this year’s list will be used again in 2024. However, if a storm is considered too deadly or damage caused by a storm deemed too costly, the name will no longer be used for reasons of sensitivity. In those cases, a name is replaced during an annual World Meteorological Organization meeting.

Here are all the names selected for Atlantic tropical storms for 2018:

I Alberto

I Beryl

I Chris

I Debby

I Ernesto

I Florence

I Gordon

I Helene

I Isaac

I Joyce

I Kirk

I Leslie

I Michael

I Nadine

I Oscar

I Patty

I Rafael

I Sara

I Tony

I Valerie

I William