Talking up the economy doesn’t always mean growth will follow:

UNITED STATES economic growth in the first quarter was revised down to a lacklustre two per cent – a sharp deceleration and the poorest showing in a year.

But economists expect a significant rebound in the current quarter, forecasting a sizzling growth rate of four per cent or more.

The Commerce Department said Thursday in its final estimate for the January-March quarter that gross domestic product, GDP, the country’s total output of goods and services, was even weaker than previously thought. Lower numbers from consumer spending and business inventories helped trim 0.2 percentage points off last month’s estimate that GDP had grown 2.2 per cent in the January-March period.

But recent economic reports, including consumer spending, have looked strong and point to far better growth in the AprilJune quarter.

Rosy forecast for June

A GDP forecasting gauge produced by the Federal Reserve’s Atlanta regional bank is projecting GDP growth of 4.5 per cent this quarter, an estimate that is in line with many private forecasters. That would be the strongest GDP performance since a 5.2 per cent gain in the third quarter of 2014.

The first-quarter GDP figure is a notable slowdown from 2.9 per cent GDP growth in the fourth quarter and gains above three per cent in the second and third quarters of 2017.

President Donald Trump has often cited this string of strong GDP numbers as evidence that his economic programme of deregulation, tax cuts and strong enforcement of trade deals is working. However, private economists believe that the current economic boost from the US$1.5-trillion tax cut that Congress approved in December will be short-lived.

Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at SS Economics in Los Angeles, said he is forecasting growth this year and next year of close to three per cent, but then a slowdown to less than one per cent in 2020.

Severe weakness expected in 2020

“We are boosting economic activity artificially now, so there will be a payback in the future,” Sohn said. Some analysts believe the weakness in 2020, a presidential election year, could be severe enough to raise the prospects of a recession.

The administration is not forecasting any slowdown, projecting annual GDP growth will rise to three per cent and stay there for the rest of the decade.

The first-quarter figure primarily reflected weaker consumer spending, which slowed to growth at a rate of just 0.9 per cent, the worst showing since the spring of 2013. However, that slowdown followed a four per cent surge in spending in the fourth quarter. Analysts believe consumer spending, which accounts for 70 per cent of economic activity, has accelerated in the current quarter.

Businesses were more restrained in re-stocking inventory. That also held back growth in the first quarter.

The nation’s trade deficit was a slight drag on growth in the first quarter as export growth slowed.