Cooler sea temperatures could reduce number of hurricanes
THERE COULD be a reduction in the number of systems that develop throughout the hurricane season as experts have indicated that seasurface temperatures have been cooler than expected.
Evan Thompson, director of the Meteorological Service Division, is, however, warning against complacency.
In its April forecast, the Colorado State University team said that there would be 14 named storms, seven of which would develop into hurricanes – three of them major.
In an interview with The Gleaner yesterday, Thompson said that the agency was constantly monitoring developments and weather patterns.
“What we are seeing, though, is that the sea-surface temperatures are cooler than expected, and usually, you need warmer temperatures for these systems to be developed. So, with the cooling of seasurface temperatures, it could reduce the number of systems that develop,” he said.
“We should not be complacent at all. You only need one storm [to cause devastation]. So, the numbers are not really a predictor of whether we will be impacted or not. We just have to be maintaining that alertness,” Thompson added.
He also pointed to the El Niño phenomenon, noting that it could contribute to the outcome of the hurricane season, which ends November 30.
“The El Niño phenomenon is something we have been watching, and it is something that develops every now and then. It’s not very predictable in terms of when exactly it would start or how long it would last. We noticed that there was a tendency towards it developing later this year. So, it was already taken into consideration when the predictions were made for this year’s hurricane season.
“We anticipated that with the El Niño developing near to the end of 2018, it could mean that the latter part of the hurricane season would be decreasing going towards the end,” Thompson said.