Puzzles in business and consumer confidence

A most interesting crosstalk occurred between pollster Don Anderson and Ambassador Aloun Ndombet Assamba after the pollster was reporting on the second quarter 2018 business and consumer confidence survey.

“What’s the sense of consumer confidence, of business confidence, if it doesn’t come down to the individual, if the individual doesn’t have personal confidence or an expectation of a personal improvement in their situation ... I really don’t understand the results,” the ambassador said.

Towards the end, the following took place.

Pollster Anderson: “I think it’s very clear that they (consumers) are feeding into and mining information that is being disseminated. What they see around them, what they hear around them, but they aren’t feeling it themselves.” Assamba: “So the PR is working.” Anderson: “Extremely well.” If Anderson is correct that the JLP administration’s PR, whatever it may be in whatever shape, is working to convince young people who have no work that work is on the horizon, it must also mean that there is still a plurality of people in this country who still trust Holness and his JLP Government.

Does the PM understand what this means? For one, it probably means that his party is marginally ahead in the polls. Second, Holness ought to understand the tenuous nature of such an arrangement, based for now on the win of trust and its big sister, hope.

Nine months from now, a number of situations could occur. First, the JLP patient could, without announcement, accept its pregnancy and surreptitiously terminate it. Second, it could give birth to a workable policy move and announce the PNP as the babydaddy or demonstrate to us the better deal on the in-house pregnancy.

The third option is the worse. As more attention is drawn to a government whose chance of growing stale is getting better odds than it continuing to win the PR war, the JLP administration may just find that its staggering and stuttering on important issues may begin to give the PNP reason to breathe again and to keep its political hope alive.

Every two days, new information of Petrojam is gleaned, if not disseminated, and it is quite troubling. Mr Holness needs to thank the intrusion of the World Cup football twists, turns, excitement and surprises for keeping those matters operating under the still efficient PR of the JLP (for how long?).