ECLAC projects slight uptick in Ja’s economic growth next year
THE UNITED Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has projected that Jamaica, Barbados, and Trinidad will return the lowest economic growth numbers in the region this year and will lag behind other regional states next year.
In its preliminary overview of Latin America and the Caribbean, Sheldon McLean, coordinator of the Economic Development Unit of ECLAC, noted that growth strengthened across the region in 2018.
Weighted average real growth in the region rose to 1.9 per cent in 2018 relative to 0 per cent in 2017.
Antigua and Barbuda (5.3 per cent) and Grenada (5.2 per cent) were the two fastest-growing Caribbean economies in 2018 due to stronger performances in tourism-related activities as well as construction.
At the same time, Barbados, with 0.5 per cent, and Jamaica's 1.5 per cent were the economies that grew the slowest.
The report showed that growth rate of the service-producing economies increased to 1.8 per cent in 2018 relative to 0.9 per cent in 2017, driven primarily by dynamism in the tourism sector and increased economic activity in construction (partly due to reconstruction activity following the destructive hurricane season in 2017), manufacturing, and agricultural sectors.
Growth rate of the goodsproducing economies increased to 2.1 per cent in 2018, up from 1.2 per cent in 2017, mainly driven by new natural gas projects in Trinidad and Tobago; refined gold and oil production in Suriname; and increased output in the livestock, crops, forestry, mining, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, and other services sectors in Guyana.
In 2019, economic growth across the region is expected to increase slightly to 2.1 per cent. Growth in the service-producing economies is expected to increase to 2.1 per cent while growth among the goods producers is forecasted to remain steady at 2.1 per cent.
Downside risks to the regional forecast include an active hurricane season, continued uncertainty around commodity prices, US-China tariffs, Brexit, as well as the slowdown of the global economy.