Putting the wheels back on the PNP

THE PEOPLE’S National Party’s (PNP) overwrought response to a fraudulent letter claiming to be Peter Phillips’ resignation as its president may be understandable, given the letter’s circulation in the midst of Thursday’s East Portland by-election. But the issue to which it alluded, Dr Phillips’ future at the helm of the party, can’t be a matter that hasn’t crossed his mind or those of others in the PNP’s leadership.

After all, it is a subject not alien to its rank and file. In that regard, it would be remiss of Dr Phillips, or anyone occupying that position, if his tenure, or the future of it, wasn’t part of a robust analysis of what happened in East Portland, and why.

This review must include an honest assessment of internal tensions, if there are any, which may be affecting the party, at this time, gaining traction with voters. That is what serious organisations do in the aftermath of situations such as these. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the leader is thrown overboard.

The East Portland by-election was occasioned by February’s murder of Lynvale Bloomfield, the PNP member of parliament. In the 2016 general election, when the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) displaced the PNP from Government by a single seat, Dr Bloomfield received 8,606 votes, for a majority of 2,276. In last week’s election, Damion Crawford, the PNP’s late-hour import, received 9,611 votes, an increase of 1,005,

or 12 per cent. The PNP expanded its support, but Mr Crawford lost by 306 votes, or a margin of 3.1 per cent.

It was a close election. But those figures are only part of the story. They don’t reflect fully the achievement of JLP’s Ann-Marie Vaz, the wife of a Cabinet minister and MP for the constituency next door. The 9,917 votes she won were 57 per cent more than what the JLP received in the 2016 general election. She wiped out the deficit then added 15 per cent more votes to the count.

It may be a fact that, as their opponents alleged, the deep pockets of the Vazes and the JLP, buoyed by state resources, gave them a decided advantage. Mr Crawford’s raising of the discomfiting issue of class, colour and privilege in Jamaica, and his perceived sexist ridicule of Mrs Vaz, cost him votes.

But it is not only specific conduct of this campaign that will inform questions about the performance of the PNP during Dr Phillips’ two years of leadership. This was the second by-election loss on his watch – both seats previously held by his party.

MAKE MORE ATTRACTIVE

More critical is the failure of the PNP to parlay the many scandals that have dogged the Andrew Holness’ Government into support for the Opposition. For instance, Don Anderson’s March poll for this newspaper gave the PNP a popular support of only 18 per cent, 11 percentage points adrift of the JLP. Their support was 29 per cent. The majority of Jamaicans (53 per cent) retreated to the column of undecided.

Significantly, only 15 per cent had a clear, positive image of the PNP, while 43 per cent saw it as average. Forty-two per cent was negative about the PNP.

With regard to Dr Phillips, 49 per cent had a perception of him, ranging from average to positive, with only a quarter of that amount being at the positive end of the spectrum. Fifty-one per cent were negative.

Given these poll numbers and the East Portland result, it would be hardly surprising if Prime Minister Holness calls a general election at the earliest opportunity – well before it’s due in 2021. But with over half the electorate undecided, all is not lost for the PNP. It has to, though, pull itself out of the drift into unviability, which, given Jamaica’s twoparty system, is important to our democracy.

If this is to happen, the PNP has, first, to determine if Dr Phillips ought to remain its leader, and if that is the case, what is to be done to make him, and the party, attractive to voters. In that process, it has to craft a message that resonates with voters and can be voiced by its key leaders, without the passive resistance that seems to be the mode of some key players.