Caribbean energy security under threat
AN INCREASE in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius is projected to bring with it a variety of risks for Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS), not the least of which is compromised energy security.
This is reflected in the recent research work of Peter Donk and others in their examination of the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname, which supplies some 40 per cent of that island’s power demand.
“A potential decrease in hydropower potential, relative to historical observations, of up to approximately 40 per cent is projected towards the end of the century for mean global surface warming in the range of 1.5 degrees Celsius,” noted the researchers, who also include Els Van Uytven, Prof Patrick Willems and Prof Michael Taylor of The University of the West Indies.
“This increases to approximately 50 per cent for mean global surface warming slightly above two degrees Celsius, and to approximately 80 per cent for mean global surface warming above three degrees Celsius,” they added, referencing their findings.
Their research work, dated April 2018, is titled ‘Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 degrees Celsius versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Surname’.
The implications, the researchers note, are potentially far-reaching, certainly for Suriname where drought conditions in 2009 and then again in 2012-2014 resulted in the country’s power utility “drawing 25 up to 40 per cent or 20 up to 30 megawatts less from the Afobaka hydropower scheme”. Extreme droughts associated with the warming of the planet are among the projected impacts of a changing climate.
“Although there is potential for other renewable sources, such as wind and solar, no assessment has been done [in] considering to what extent these can contribute in a significant way to the energy mix of Suriname; that is, to offset future changes in hydropower potential and to keep fossil fuel to a minimum,” they wrote.
The use of fossil fuels, including coal and oil, prompt the warming of the planet as they generate greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide, that fuel climate change and its impacts. These impacts include not only extreme droughts, but also extreme hurricanes and sea level rise that are hugely problematic for Caribbean small island developing states. This is given not only the geographical location and small size of the islands of the region, but also their struggling or otherwise highly climate-sensitive economies.
CAUTIONARY TALE
At the same time, Donk, Taylor and the other researchers indicate that the findings provide a useful cautionary tale for not only Suriname, but also other islands of the Caribbean, in their consideration of energy security for the future.
In the case of Suriname, they have noted that a part of what will be required is policy and legislative reforms to regulate the energy sector, including “steering households towards more self-sufficiency using domestic solar power”.
“It is also very important to take into consideration that wind and solar are intermittent resources, which do not guarantee firm power output and therefore introduce technical limitations associated with grid stability,” they said.
“The study points to an urgent need for a range of actions needed in the Caribbean energy sector – policy through technological advancements – to ensure future energy security in the face of global warming,” the researchers added.