Jamaica’s response to COVID-19
IT HAS now been over 54 days since the Government initiated its first set of COVID-19 disaster management measures; with over 450 persons testing positive and very regrettably, nine deaths at the time of writing. As with most other countries, Jamaica’s response has been to restrict movement through curfews and selective lockdowns of towns or in one case, an entire parish, the imposition of substantive workplace protocols (varying by industry segment) and the exhortation for as much work from home as possible (leading by example with its ministries/agencies). All public gatherings have been limited to 10 people and most bars/entertainment facilities have been closed.
Unlike many other countries, Jamaica has stopped short of a total lockdown, as seen in Italy, Spain and China’s Wuhan Province, to name a few, where entire economies have been put on hold while governments have sought to ‘flatten the curve’, such that their medical facilities are able to handle the significant influx of COVID-19 patients. Many pundits have criticised our Government for not being more aggressive in its restriction of people movement and have advocated for a ‘Wuhan-type’ shutdown, while others have pointed to several Asian and European countries, whose approaches have been more liberal, allowing businesses and even schools to remain open.
It seems unusual that countries with similar levels of development and institutional sophistication could take such opposite approaches to a common problem, especially in light of the few demographic differences, say between Sweden and Canada. Even three months into this crisis, there is heated debate over what the data points to:
• Are death rates inflated as a percentage of people infected? Said another way, is the denominator correct (how many people are really infected, given the relative paucity of per capita testing)? • Are younger people unlikely to experience any lasting ill-effects of the virus given that the early data points to high levels of asymptomatic experience and very low death rates among this cohort (the Alorica test results being a case in point)?
• Is there a ‘fat-tailed distribution’ yet to be felt, or in layman’s terms, is there a second wave to come that may feature significantly higher death rates than the early data indicates?
The very fact that there are widely differing views on the foregoing questions presents a high degree of difficulty for policymakers in choosing the right prescriptions, bearing in mind the natural desire to revert to ‘normal’ as soon as possible.
Added to this pot are the increasing number of layoffs currently being experienced across a wide number of industries, as a follow-on to the initial closings seen in the tourism and travel-related sector.
SHIFTED AWAY
Most recently, the Government’s response has shifted away from very tight restrictions (e.g., St Catherine lockdown) to a gradual easing of impositions on the economy, while focusing on strengthening health and safety measures at the workplace. My view is that this is the correct approach; in small economies, there is an inflection point that once crossed becomes very hard to reverse, as governments are without many of the levers available to more developed economies, for example, small business subsidies, whole sector bailouts, social security payments to those laid off, etc.
So how can the Government sustain this approach without provoking a wider spread of the disease in too short a time for it to be managed effectively? Culling policies with the greatest universality from the many prevailing views, a few applicable lessons stand out: • Protecting the older population and those with significant comorbidities; this is not an easy task given the multigenerational nature of the majority of households in Jamaica and one to which we need to apply the most effort and creativity. Public-private partnerships will be critical to timely and effective action in this regard.
• Ramping up testing, including identifying highly specific antibody testing as a management tool in both private and public sectors. This should be augmented with additional trained resources for more comprehensive contact tracing, with the ancillary benefit of employment.
• Using data analytics for enhanced decision-making, such that we are able to intervene more precisely in response to new cases rather than apply more general measures that are typically less effective (India has recently instituted a mandatory contact tracing app for all public/ private sector employees). • Private sector establishments in the main are already compliant with the health and safety protocols; attention now needs to be given to the many less formal hotspots, including high-density street vending, markets and other high-traffic areas (e.g., Parade in downtown Kingston). This is a difficult exercise given the socio-economic ramifications, but one that needs to be tackled quickly.
• Concerted efforts by both public and private sectors to offer services online versus on-premises to prevent gatherings (e.g., tax offices). Again, this is not an overnight fix but one that will address a situation that is likely to prevail for a considerable period of time, making the investment of time and resources worthwhile. To this end, I applaud the Government’s relaxation of on-boarding requirements for small account holders to increase the ability of our population to utilise banking services online.
In playing the long game, much of what we do as a country must have an eye to the reopening of the tourism sector, a vital contributor to jobs, hard currency inflows and GDP. There is no doubt that the rules of the game have changed and many of our brightest minds in this sector are working on modalities that will foster peace of mind for those who have been longing to experience the Caribbean. These strategies, which I hope to provide greater insight into at a later date, will likely be ineffective if we cannot demonstrate the country’s ability to contain the disease while remaining open for business.
■ Peter Melhado is president and CEO of the ICD Group Ltd, chaired by Joseph Matalon, chairman of the RJRGLEANER Communications Group. Feedback: columns@ gleanerjm.com.