LARGE AND IN CHARGE
Robert Nesta Morgan holds commanding lead in Clarendon North Central
ROBERT NESTA Morgan, the anointed acolyte of Prime Minister Andrew Holness, appears to have shored up the Clarendon North Central seat that was in danger of switching political allegiance after a narrowed margin in the last general election under Pearnel Charles Sr. Based on a just-conducted Gleaner commissioned
Don Anderson poll in the constituency, the ruling Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) dominance in Clarendon North Central, an atypical battleground seat, is set to continue into the September 3 general election despite the challenge of the People’s National Party’s (PNP) Dr Desmond Brennan.
Clarendon North Central has voted predominantly one way since being created in 1967, with the JLP being the party of choice. Except for 1993 and 1997 when George Lyn triumphed over Charles Sr, no other PNP candidate has experienced success in the constituency.
The ominous poll results could spell trouble for the PNP, as Julian Robinson, its general secretary, noted that Clarendon North Central is“very critical to the party’s overall plan to win the general election and is one of the seats we are targeting”.
However, the Gleaner-commissioned
constituency poll, conducted by Market Research Services Limited from August 22 to August 25, found Nesta Morgan to be in a comfortable position ahead of the September 3 election. Morgan, parliamentary secretary in the Office of the Prime Minister, holds an 8.8 percentage-point lead over Brennan, with 38.2 per cent of respondents indicating that they intend to cast ballots for the JLP candidate. Conversely, 29.4 per cent of those interviewed said they would vote for Brennan.
“It is going to be an uphill task, a pretty steep one,” Anderson said of the PNP’s chances of winning the seat, adding that making up an 8.8 percentage-point deficit is not easy. He, however, stressed that polls are won on election day and depend “on the ability of either camp to mobilise”.
Some 32.4 per cent of those interviewed either said they do not vote or refused to indicate how they would cast ballots. The sample size for the poll is 325 persons aged 18 years and over who are registered to vote. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent.
Electoral Office of Jamaica data show that 23,218 electors are eligible to vote in what is shaping up to be a titanic clash, with 14,974 of those registered being under 50 years old.
Clarendon North Central comprises three divisions – Chapelton, Mocho, and Rock River. The poll found Brennan to be the stronger candidate in Chapelton (36.1 per cent to Morgan’s 31.5 per cent), but he trails Morgan in Rock River (29.2: 31.1) and Mocho (23: 31.3).
Meanwhile, Morgan, who is seeking to continue the JLP’s winning legacy in the seat, described the mood of the voters towards him as very positive.
“The people are motivated by the reality of our good government and that they have a better future in store with Andrew Holness and Robert Nesta Morgan,” he said.
“We have done the work and met the people. Our workers are ready and voters motivated.”
SLIPPING AWAY
Clarendon North Central appeared to be slipping away from the JLP, which was engaged in an internal battle to determine its standard-bearer in the constituency. With Charles Sr indicating that he was retiring, his son, Charles Jr, was touted as a possible replacement.
However, Morgan, a son of the soil, pressed his claim and was chosen to represent the party there. The younger Charles was sent to Clarendon South East after the member of parliament, Rudyard Spencer, stepped aside in February to quell the feud.
To boost the party’s chances for victory in North Central, Holness made two recent trips to the constituency, first to commission a water project in Mocho, and then on a motorcade to drum up support for Morgan.
“The leader has had a great impact. People appreciate the work he and his team have done and believe in his vision. His visit reminded them of the important place North Central and its people have in our hearts,” Morgan told
The Gleaner.
Brennan could not be reached for comment on Wednesday, but Robinson said that the medical doctor is a strong home-grown candidate with a history of service to the constituency. The general secretary expects him to do well in next Thursday’s election.
“Our soundings indicate that we are in a very strong position to win the seat, and we are focusing on fine-tuning our election day plans and logistics to get our voters out,” Robinson said.