The dilemma of holding election in COVID-19
A FEW reactions to the column written by Dr Alfred Dawes.
He wrote: ‘The reasons why the election was called with six months to spare can only be answered by the hierarchy of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).’Why then spend a lot of words speculating about those reasons? Because it helps set up, at least, a set of possibly false narratives. His views are hypothetical but clearly have a slant.
One of the best arguments for postponing election would be to think we know well how the rate of infections and its curve will develop, and that rather than being near the bottom of a (possible long) upswing, we are approaching a near-term peak and then can flatten out, or decline thereafter.
One reason to doubt that is many other countries have entered a similar phase, after flattening then trying to resume normal life, in varying degrees. So, we see new rates of infection with high intensity, even greater than before, looking at the slope of the curves.
That tells us something about this virus, one of which is that it will recur in waves and these may be with varying intensity, until such time as we develop vaccines or somehow establish herd immunity. But, the ‘end’ is not anywhere near in sight. So, delay in those circumstances is also high risk, not risk-less.
CHANGE OF MINDSET
Another reason to doubt what may happen is that other things don’t stay the same; many processes involving mingling are already in train, including the resumption of daily life, and a general air of complacency within the population. So, whatever one does, if that mindset does not change, little else can change in a major way.
The fact that schools have decided to defer opening to October was a smart move, given that the nature of schooling and transport of students in Jamaica is ripe for a massive increase in infections. This would fit with what we’ve seen in many countries, once schools resumed. The US incidence is not a great example, but it’s still relevant. But, we also do not know what October will bring.
If the argument to delay the election makes sense, then it needs a corollary that most other forms of mingling are also curbed, as we believe that’s what works best. That means locking down to some greater degree than at the time the election was announced.
It is important to note that holding elections are bound by constitutional need. It’s all well and good to talk about six months before they are due as if this is just some nicety. While we may look at the ultimate deadline in June as far away, it can also become binding fast. That in essence is what New Zealand is up against. So, having named its election date of midSeptember back in January, it’s all right to delay that by about a month to midOctober. But, their PM has said there will be no further delays – because they must happen by November. So, no matter what COVID-19 outcomes are, the country will vote.
There are good reasons to hold the election now and then anticipate a worsening without a constitutional constraint about timing, and decide policies with the future running of government clearly set (whoever wins), so any decisions about sacrificing the economy or strains on the health sector can be done in a freer environment.
DENNIS G. JONES