FAYVAL WAY IN FRONT
Massive lead over Venesha Phillips in St Andrew Eastern
ASTOIC Fayval Williams is set to comfortably fend off the challenge of her flamboyant People’s National Party (PNP) rival, delivering a stinging defeat to return to Gordon House for a second consecutive term, a Gleaner-commissioned poll has shown.
But some pundits believe that Venesha Phillips could still spring a surprise in St Andrew Eastern.
Though the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has won St Andrew Eastern in the last three of four polls, margins have not exceeded 599 votes in a constituency key to the party retaining state power.
Williams prevailed in the 2016 election by just 161 votes, sending the PNP incumbent, Andre Hylton, west, where he is making another run for Parliament.
And, based on the poll, Williams, the first woman to become a full minister in the finance ministry, could be on her way to reinforcing her hold after eking out a slim victory.
Of the 300 registered voters polled from the constituency, 45.3 per cent said they would vote for Williams, handing her
a 13 percentage-point lead over Phillips, who came in at 32.3 per cent.
Just over one-fifth (22.4 per cent) said they would not vote, or declined to answer, although a further 66 per cent of the residents said that educational and economic opportunities could get them to cast a ballot.
Williams was the preferred candidate in the two divisions – Papine and Mona – that make up the constituency.
Interestingly, Phillips polled higher in Mona (25.5 per cent) than in Papine (39.5 per cent), the division she represents in the Kingston and St Andrew Municipal Corporation.
Pollster Don Anderson explained that unlike the conventional occurrence where some MPS suffer after being saddled with portfolio responsibilities, Williams has apparently benefited.
“She has had the kind of visibility that Phillips hasn’t had, and in the wake of what seems to be a shift to the ruling party, she has benefited from that macro advantage as well,” said Anderson, pointing out that Phillips’ numbers were better than unpublished polls done earlier this year.
“I think that’s what making this less of a battleground seat than it normally is.”
Williams was appointed minister of energy, science, and technology in February 2019 after a stint in the finance ministry.
Anderson, meanwhile, said that Phillips is not out of the race and must now “strengthen your bulwark, strengthen your defence, and make sure you make advances that will cut that gap … and you could very well win”.
Speaking on Thursday while on a tour, Williams said she was banking on her performance for re-election.
“In every community, I can point to something tangible that I’ve done,” Williams said.
“... I’m banking on the training that I’ve’ been able to do; job opportunities that I’ve been able to provide to many young people; the many families that I’ve been able to help with medical issues, educational issues.”
A very senior JLP official said that among the seats currently held by the party, St Andrew Eastern was among the “weakest”, but that there was an expectation for a winning margin of 300-400.
BANKING ON TRADITION
Contrasting reasons accounted for why people said they would vote for either woman, with the majority saying that they were backing Phillips because they have always voted for the PNP.
Just five per cent said they would vote for her because her leadership would help reduce crime.
On the flip side, 55 per cent of the respondents said their vote would be going to Williams because she was a “hard worker’” That was closely followed by the view that she is visible in the constituency.
Thirty-five per cent of the respondents said they were supporting Williams because of political tradition.
“The people on the ground are hungry for change. The change is coming, and you will see it on the night of September 3rd,” said Phillips, who acknowledged that crime, in particular, has been a major problem for the constituency.
One of the hotspots, August Town, celebrated zero murders for 2016 but has been a headache for the authorities as criminal gangs have resumed their battles.
In July 2020, Prime Minister Andrew Holness declared a zone of special operations that would bring social resources to the area while giving the security forces the opportunity to target the seven criminal gangs based in the community.
STRIDENT ADVOCACY
Phillips’ appeal to middle-class voters who dominate the Mona division has also been questioned, but she says that feedback on the ground has been positive to what she called her “rebel-like or strident” advocacy.
“They are looking for representation that is credible. They are looking for representation that is thought out, and that is what they recognise in me,” Phillips told The Gleaner.
The Mona division, which comprises upscale neighbourhoods such as Hope Pastures, Mona, and Liguanea, has been won by the JLP in the last four elections, even when the party lost in 2011.
The JLP has won five of the nine contested elections – including three of the last four – in the constituency established in 1976.
The opinion poll was conducted by Anderson’s Market Research Services Limited between August 22 and 25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
There are 27,384 people on the current voters’ list, an increase of 1,343 in the 2016 polls.