Pandemic must change the face of politics
WITH THE 14 deaths reported on June 13, 2021, Jamaica’s pandemic death toll passed 1,000 lives lost. As of last Tuesday (June 29) the death toll due to COVID-19 stood at 1,075, and the number of officially detected infections numbered 50,124. Last Sunday, the official (published) positivity rate was 9.2 per cent; by my calculation it was really 10.68 per cent (44 positive cases divided by 584 tests performed, times 100 per cent).
Do you remember what the numbers were like just a few months ago? In the first week of March 2021 we had three days straight of record daily infections: 527, 723, and 878 infections on March 7, 8, and 9, respectively. Of course, in those days the Government was doing – on average – 2,000 tests each day (today we do only 450-650 tests daily, so those levels of positive results are now impossible). The positivity rates for those three days were 21.22, 27.39, and 44.75 per cent!
Considering the advice that positivity rates of over five per cent are a matter for concern, those were crisis levels!
And last Sunday the positivity rate was twice that, so even though we are in a much better place than in March, we are still very much in the danger zone.
I find it strange that in Parliament on Tuesday, June 22, Prime Minister Holness announced that, starting yesterday, there will not just be a relaxation in the stringent curfew requirements and gathering limits, but that there will be a reopening of the entertainment sector for small and large gatherings (over 100 people).
Decisions like this must be driven by scientific data, the wisdom gained from past experience, and from an acute knowledge of human nature, and not by political considerations.
During the week prior to his announcement, the lowest positivity rate was 6.67 per cent (on Saturday); the previous Wednesday it was 11.38 per cent. During the month prior to his announcement the positivity rate dipped below five per cent on only two isolated occasions – June 9 (3.04 per cent) and June 14 (4.33 per cent). It went as high as 17.16 per cent (May 29). Does this data justify reopening the entertainment sector?
Except for the entertainment sector – who are overjoyed that they will now legally be able to make money again – the prime minister’s decision has been met with widespread condemnation from across the society, particularly from medical professionals. Rather than seeking to keep a delicate balance between the economy and public health, government policy has lurched from permissiveness to lockdown.
RISK OF THIRD WAVE
In my view, the reduction in the positivity rate could have justified reducing curfew hours, allowing establishments to remain open later in the evenings; but opening the door to large parties – however masked the drinkers are, and however socially distant the dancing partners – runs the risk of promoting superspreaders and a third wave.
Even Prime Minister Holness recognises this, although he is still prepared to take the risk, placing his confidence in the personal discipline of Jamaicans; speaking last Friday at a press briefing he said:
“I, too, have the fear that there probably could be a spike, but I have great faith and confidence in our people.”
Astute political pundits predict that this relaxation is a harbinger of coming local government elections, and they would cite last year as precedent: the Government opened up the party scene last Emancipendence season as “a reward for good behaviour”, announced the general election on August 11, with polls on September 3; campaign closeness on the street and in motorcades led to the declaration of community spread on September 4.
The prime minister has denied it, and we take him at his word; and he said:“Certainly, there will be no local government election held until I am satisfied that Jamaica is on the right trajectory for vaccinations.”
Fewer than 10 per cent of Jamaicans have had at least one dose of the COVID19 vaccine, and only 2 per cent have received both. The experts tell us that, unlike the vaccines against polio, tetanus, diphtheria, whooping cough, etc., which prevent the recipient from getting the disease, a person fully vaccinated against COVID-19 can still get infected – and can still spread the disease to others; the benefit is that if you do get it, it is less likely to kill you; which is good!
Even if 80 per cent of Jamaicans get fully vaccinated (which is highly unlikely), an election campaign like the one last year could still be a superspreader. From now, campaign rules must be put in place to make illegal (and arrestable) the type of close contact partying and politicking which has been the old normal. We have to learn to live with COVID-19, so it can’t be politics as usual.