Road safety biases killing motorcyclists
COUNT 160 dead in 365 days. More than any other 12-month period in Jamaica’s history. Many Jamaicans may already know that the National Road Safety Council (NRSC) has failed to reduce fatalities for at least the last seven years. Road fatalities among motorcyclists, in particular, have continued to rise, peaking with a 38 per cent increase earlier in 2021. This even with close to 60 million dollars being spent. But what is driving this tragic failure? Is it really about just the absence of new Road Traffic laws? Is the NRSC partly to be blamed for faulty leadership?
Recently, while reading the work of the brilliant world-renowned scientist Neil deGrasse Tyson, it occurred to me that specific biases may be leading to the NRSC’s persistent failures. deGrasse highlighted 12 cognitive biases that tend to lead to systematic error. The average Jamaican in the streets may not know the 12 fancy terms that deGrasse uses, but he or she knows when things “nah go mek nuh sense” in real life.
FIVE COGNITIVE BIASES
The NRSC’s failures with motorcycle safety can be summed up to at least five of the distinct cognitive biases. These are as follows:
1. The Simplistic View – Bike nuh done mek. Some officials literally hate these twowheeled creations. In alignment with this bias, the NRSC has consistently demonstrated a poor understanding of motorcycles, motorcyclists, and the related subculture. Despite such a lack of expertise, said officials continue to dream themselves competent to drive critical life-and-death interventions around motorcycling in Jamaica. After all, it’s just a motorcycle, right? Objectively speaking, no. Persons often tend to take a simplistic view of things that they do not understand or know how to do. This cognitive bias is known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect. The Dunning-Kruger Effect means that the less we know about something, the simpler/easier it appears.
A motorcycle is simple, staying alive on one isn’t always that simple. Teaching a class of 25 motorcyclists the critical things needed to operate safely and stay alive on Jamaican roads in just one 8-hour session … is definitely not simple. Add low-literacy participants and pre-existing bad habits. Effective rider education of that batch of 25 motorcyclists in a few hours becomes a task requiring far more sophisticated skill sets. Comparatively, Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) trains its officers in eight to 10 weeks. Nevertheless, in attempting its own outreach ‘motorcycle training’ programme, the NRSC in all its wisdom has boasted of having nearly 50 participants in a class at a time. This is insane on many levels. The political photo ops look great to anyone who doesn’t grasp the true depth of the errors. This is a perfect example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
2. In-Group Bias – This type of bias refers to how people are more likely to support or believe someone within their own social group than an outsider. In essence, this protects the elephant in the room. The biggest elephant in the room in Jamaica’s road safety matters is corruption in drivers’ licensing exam systems. In official road safety meetings, any accusation at a government agency along these lines is almost taboo. To protect their own colleagues, the conversation is shut down quickly by saying, “Without evidence, there is no case. Police are unable to prosecute.”
Realistically, we know corruption won’t disappear overnight.
However, the real danger of such in-group bias occurs when their proposed ‘solutions’ ignore the red flags. A key example was the ‘solution’ of making a road code test a prerequisite for anyone to get a learner’s licence, supposedly to prevent motorcyclists from riding on just a learner’s.
A great move. However, bias has caused road safety officials to cling to licensing-based solutions that are already undermined. The same entity flagged in the sale of driver’s licences ... is now also in charge of executing that initial road code test. Essentially, giving the cat the cheese to hold for safekeeping. Is it any wonder that these and other interventions have failed to dent motorcycle fatalities? The same cats also inevitably increase in influence with the Government’s aforementioned multimilliondollar “training” effort where motorcyclists are “encouraged” to become properly licensed.
Motorcyclist fatalities continue, but officials know it is easier to play ‘deaf, dumb, and blind’ to systemic red flags and then spin the failures as the ‘reckless motorcyclists’ fault. Protect your own kind and accuse the outsider. This is in-group bias.
3. Status Quo Bias – In February 2016, I wrote in a newspaper article, “It’s my hope that eventually a committee will be created to address the needs of the motorcycle rider from which their suggestions would become amendments to the Road Traffic Act (RTA) in the future.” Days later, the NRSC announced the formation of a “motorcycle committee” with a dozen of its own chosen members, with only one or two token motorcyclists. Wonder where that idea came from?
Flash forward to 2021 and the Back to Basics Motorcycle Safety Mission (BTB). Now a successful private social enterprise that has innovated with its proven effective one-day motorcycle safety training workshops. Since 2016, BTB’s model has demonstrated the ability to deliver a more than 85 per cent reduction in injuries for its clients with over 3.5 million kilometres ridden. Only one road fatality since 2016. Same roads. Same outdated traffic laws. Yet, over the same period, the Government has seen a 50% increase in rider fatalities. Why isn’t the private entity being allowed to help to steer a credible national programme, perhaps in some form of partnership? The answer is actually much more bureaucratic and controversial than common sense would dictate. It’s status quo bias.
By objective standards, the NRSC in Jamaica is neither credible nor effective. Nevertheless, those in charge have been resistant to any major change in thought leadership, especially when it comes to motorcyclist fatalities. For years, the same road safety officials (and their colleagues) have been allowed to steer decisions and consume funding – and travel benefits – from various sources. Every now and then, young persons are added to help the NRSC maintain relevance and allow the failing status quo to pilfer new ideas. No matter how often they pilfer and fail, the dinosaur thinkers remain at the helm, with the ear of the PM and ministers through successive administrations.
Time is up. According to deGrasse, the status quo bias refers to a human preference to keep things in their current state, while regarding any type of change as a loss. This results in difficulty accepting change even when it is obviously needed.
4. Self-serving bias – In August 2020, road safety officials began conducting their own “motorcycle training” workshops. Sadly, at least one 2020 road fatality occurred among the participants of these interventions. Worse still, the NRSC’s own statistical experts can corroborate that the interventions produced no clear verifiable reduction in fatalities. Nevertheless, instead of responsibility and accountability, the official response would suggest that such outcomes were beyond their control. A few months later, during COVID-related lockdowns right across the parish – such that nearly all non-essential movement was severely restricted – fatalities fell across the parish ... momentarily. The road safety officials seemingly ‘owned’ the reductions as proof that its training programme was a success and deserving of continued support. Notably, as COVID restrictions eased, fatalities in Westmoreland returned with a vengeance. No news update. In this example of a selfserving bias, the NRSC dubiously continues to sing praises on its initiative ... perhaps hoping that no one notices the sleight of hand.
Count 160 lives lost, forever. The self-serving bias results in a tendency to blame outside circumstances for bad situations rather than taking responsibility. This while taking credit for the good things that happen ... beyond one’s control. The NRSC’s responses would lead us to believe that they are ‘flawlessly’ doing all they can while distancing themselves from the tragic increase in deaths. This is a self-serving bias.
5. Confirmation Bias/Ostrich Effect – This last bias leads a person to seek out information that confirms their beliefs while simultaneously filtering all objective evidence that says their original beliefs are incorrect. Hard numbers don’t matter. Facts are discredited. Persons could even encourage you to filter and dismiss this fact-based editorial criticism along similar lines. This is called the ostrich effect.
Legitimate sustainable solutions will not flourish in this policy environment. If these biases continue, Jamaica’s growing motorcycle fatality crisis will not cease. The foolhardy may await the new Road Traffic laws. However, the new act is unlikely to produce sustained reductions in motorcyclist fatalities for years to come. Waiting risks more years of unacceptably high deaths.
Stop rewarding non-performance. Enough photo ops and curry goat. We must encourage all our elected officials to boldly move away from these five deadly biases. With critical changes, fatalities would begin to slow down decisively and sustainably in short order. Jamaica could see up to a 50 per cent reduction in fatalities in just three years. Officials may choose some other approach, but I personally refuse to sit by and let anyone call their persistent deadly failure a success. Enough.