Caribbean scientist gives thumbs up to latest IPCC work programme
THE RECENTLY announced programme of work for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has won the endorsement of at least one local scientist, who says that their efforts should help to make the case for the prioritisation of small island developing states (SIDS) in the global response to the climate crisis.
“In my view, the focus areas are highly significant as part of global efforts to achieving the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement,” said Dr Adrian Spence, senior research scientist at the International Centre for Environmental and Nuclear Sciences; and who has himself served the IPCC.
The Paris Agreement sets out the commitment of countries to, among other things, “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.
The IPCC, meanwhile, is the premier body for the assessment of the science of climate change. A reported 300 delegates from 120 countries met in Istanbul, Turkey between January 16 and 19 when it was determined that their next cycle of work is to include a Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies, Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage. This is in addition to a Special Report on Climate Change and Cities; and a Methodology Report on Short-lived Climate Forcers.
Short-lived climate forcers, which are also, in most instances air pollutants, include aerosols such as nitrate, ammonium, mineral dust and sea spray; as well as chemically reactive gases, such as methane, ozone, carbon monoxide, and ammonia.
The IPCC is also to produce three Working Group contributions to the Seventh Assessment Report, notably the Working Group I report on the Physical Science Basis [for climate change]; the Working Group II report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; as well as the Working Group III report on Mitigation of Climate Change.
“The panel has taken a critical step in plotting the course for the entire cycle. Their decisions reflect the interest of member governments in getting policy-relevant, timely and actionable scientific information as soon as possible and providing input to the 2028 second Global Stocktake. There is a notable emphasis on adaptation to climate change,” said IPCC Chair, Professor Jim Skea, in a January 20 news release on outcomes from the Istanbul meeting.
According to Spence, with the growing concerns over cities, for example, there is important insight to be gained from this next cycle of work by the IPCC, which is also to produce a Synthesis Report on the Seventh Assessment Report following the completion of the Working Group reports and released by 2029.
“For instance, cities are growing at an alarming rate, particularly in the global South, and it has been estimated that more than half the world’s population will be living in cities within the next decade or so. This means a significant amount of GHG (greenhouse) emissions from lifestyle activities. Importantly, it also represents significant opportunities for climate change mitigation, with co-benefits for adaptation,” he explained.
“The focus on shot-lived climate forcers is also critical as they do not only impact climate, but are also significant sources of pollution with numerous public health and environmental consequences. CDR (carbon dioxide removal) and CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation and storage) are particularly important as we aim for carbon peaking and neutrality by 2030 and 2050, respectively,” added Spence, who was nominated in 2017 to serve as a lead author for ‘Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land, degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas refluxes in terrestrial ecosystems’.
“The urgency of these strategies cannot be over emphasised, as even though emissions are trending downwards, we are still on a trajectory of exceeding warning of three degrees above pre-industrial levels,” the scientist said further.
GHG emissions fuel the changing climate which presents a range of impacts – from extreme hurricanes and droughts to warmer sea surface temperatures that affect marine life as well as coastal erosion which implications for the fisheries and tourism sectors – all of which Caribbean and other SIDS are especially vulnerable to.
The comprehensive I PCC reports, published every five to seven years, have helped to inform climate policy in national jurisdictions in as much as they have informed the global climate negotiations among countries.