Poll position: Nothing local about the stakes
TOMORROW, JAMAICANS get to do what only two other modern democracies have been able to do before us. Do not take this for granted; there are still millions of citizens and residents across the world who are unable to vote in the countries in which they were born.
Indeed, in some nations an adult is disqualified from voting, simply because she lacks a certain male appendage. Of course, regrettably, the absence of fortitude in its figurative accompaniments does not disqualify any of our leaders or aspirants for political office and other persons we have put in charge of our society.
Yet, the beautiful thing with being in a democracy is that we can vote our leaders in or out, criticise or make fun of them. True, there is always the risk that someone will victimise or simply hate you for speaking your mind. However, as long as you tell the truth, this is the worst that can happen; because freedom of speech and conscience is entrenched in our Constitution.
When we take the right to speak our minds or to mark one ‘X’ for granted, we spit on those who fought to prevent these freedoms from blowing away in the wind.
We should make all efforts to go and dip our fingers. Fortuitously, it is the index and not the one beside it, although given the level of voter apathy, it might be an accurate indicator of the most popular voter sentiments at the moment.
DUCK FROM VOTING
After all, the recent RJRGLEANER Don Anderson polls indicate that the largest block of potential voters are those who choose to duck from voting and give an ‘F’ to the two main political parties. Around 40 per cent of electors awarded the parish councillors a failing grade. The same 40 per cent have no idea about the type of relationship between their member of parliament and their councillor. Still, they would prefer to not vote rather than for an independent, with 45 per cent saying no.
Such is democracy. In countries such as Australia, Fiji, and Bolivia, whose flag looks like our Rastafarian, Ethiopian and Ghanaian standards, unless there is a justifiable reason to abstain from voting, it is a crime.
Inasmuch as the right to vote also means the right to not vote, low voter turnouts are the bane of our democratic process. It should never be the case that a government, whether local or general elections, gets chosen by less than half of the eligible voters. Mark you! I am speaking of voter turnout, not absolute majorities.
Assuming that the political leaders and party supporters are being law-abiding citizens, then the electioneering is over and no masses of persons, coloured like papaya, carrots and cucumbers, are out trying to persuade people to vote.
Thanks to the parties who have spent their money advertising in The Gleaner and during Radio Jamaica 94FM’s Hotline. It helps to pay a bill or two.
In the larger scheme of things, local government elections are not weighted as general elections. After all, the parish councils are always subject to the dictates of the minister of local government.
Notwithstanding this, parish councils are very important, because they capture the diversity within constituencies and divisions, and as the name suggests, they are designed to deal with local problems and issues.
HARBINGERS OF BEHAVIOUR
While they certainly are not equivalents, local government elections are often harbingers of behaviour in subsequent elections. Most times, since we have had universal adult suffrage, the local government elections follow the overall pattern of voting behaviour in the preceding general election. Thus, the incumbent government still has the goodwill of the people. It is not very often that a ruling party halfway through its term loses the next local government election. However, it happens.
This puts the government in a diametrically opposed and the conflictual situation, as the local mayors seek to gain ascendancy over the overall running of the country and constituencies. Which is why the typical situation is that the governing party almost always wins the local government election that followed it. Twice, however, in our modern history, we have had parish councils dominated by the opposition, and those persons in parliament ought to take sleep and mark ‘debt’.
In 1986 the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), with a stranglehold over Parliament because of the 1983 boycott by the People’s National Party (PNP), found itself losing the local government elections. Of the 187 divisions, the PNP took 128, backed by 56 per cent of the popular vote. Coupled with the complications coming from Hurricane Gilbert, the loss of support of the labour movement, and increased discontent among the uniform forces, including the fire brigade and the police, the writing was on the wall. February 1989 ushered in the PNP with the same 56 per cent of the vote and 45 of the 60 seats.
The same pattern obtained in the 2003 polls. An overconfident PNP got its rear end kicked in the local government elections. Tightly contested, the JLP won by a nose; gaining 51 per cent of the votes to the PNP’s 48. And when Hurricane Dean ‘lick Jamaica’, as the then minister said, the rest was literally history repeating itself. An extremely close election with a split of a single seat and a one per cent differential, and the JLP was in the ‘driver’s’ seat under Bruce Golding.
For those who wish to keep their eyes wide shut, remember that the Man in Black kept warning that some of the emergent labour practices, the increase in contract labour and once more the dissatisfaction among the girls and boys in blue made the combination for a perfect storm literally.
As I have asserted in previous columns, elections really are won on election day; never mind the rallies, political pontifications and overconfident chest beatings. Where the majority of voters would rather vote with the middle finger than the index, it is the party that is busiest and has greater resources which may get the edge.
I’m certainly not going to stick my neck out and make any kind of prediction. My only charge is that you go out and mark your ‘X’, because without the X you have no right to ask “Y?”