Multiple victories

MARK GOLDING clearly exaggerated in declaring his People’s National Party (PNP) victorious in Monday’s municipal elections.

Mr Golding, however, does have significant positive takeaways from the outcomes, just as Prime Minister Andrew Holness cannot be faulted for insisting that it was his party which won and celebrating the result. Notably, though, even as he declared triumph, Mr Holness struck the right balance between celebration and acknowledgement that voters had sent his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) a message: there is much that they do not like about his government.

After all, even if Mr Holness’ party, as he noted, has outrightly won seven of the 13 parish-based municipal councils (two were tied), that would be one fewer than the nine (including St Thomas, where the seats were equal but it gained leadership on the basis of the popular vote) it controlled after the last election more than seven years ago.

Further, if the two tied councils – Kingston and St Andrew and Clarendon – stay that way, their control would likely fall to the PNP on the basis of their popular vote.

Mr Holness’ appreciation of these and other subtleties of the results (notwithstanding his clear assertion that the JLP has won the municipal elections, without question) helped, at the same time, to frame his conclusion that the electorate had concerns over a number of issues, including the state of roads and water, “and have found a way of communicating this to the Government”.

DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE

Mr Golding, understandably, has a different perspective of the elections. His party was on course to win more councils than it gained in 2016. Moreover, based on the preliminary numbers, it has already won 102 (JLP 95) of the 228 combined seats in the municipal corporations, five more than in 2016. The PNP, in the inconclusive preliminary counts, led in 14 as against the JLP’s 16.

Perhaps more significant for Mr Golding is that his party, with approximately 52 per cent, won the popular vote. Moreover, the party was on course to match, or surpass, the votes it received in the 2020 general election, when its support collapsed to 303,000 votes – when 37.85 per cent of the electors turned out – as against 29.6 per cent on Monday. Additionally, in the municipal elections of 2016, eight months after its defeat in national parliamentary elections, the party managed only 258,000 votes on a turnout of 30 per cent.

These numbers are important to Mr Golding. Years of infighting – including Mr Golding’s support of a challenge to his predecessor, Peter Phillips, just a year before the general election was due – badly sapped the party. It culminated with the PNP’s humiliation in the 2020 general election, when it gained only 14 of Parliament’s 63 seats.

Had the party suffered an absolute or clear defeat on Monday, it might have reopened old fractures and raised questions about Mr Golding’s future as president. He now has breathing space ahead of the general election that is constitutionally due in 18 months.

It is not, however, clear, unencumbered sailing for the PNP and its leader. They had billed the election as a referendum on the Holness administration. They might have landed effective jabs, but could not find a knockout punch. Yet, they accomplish sufficient enough to insist to the ringside crowd that it was really a victory, which will be made conclusive in the rematch.

BETTER APPRECIATION

But while the PNP may have improved confidence for the next round, Mr Holness has a better appreciation from the preliminary about his party’s areas of weakness and has a year and a half to work on them, if he does not call the election before. He seemed to rule out one this year, citing the possibility of “election fatigue”.

Like voter disaffection faced by the JLP, the PNP similarly has issues to attend to. Insofar as it did well on Monday, it was largely because it re-energised segments of its base who deserted in the two previous elections, rather than a wide embrace of the Opposition’s policies. The PNP has, thus far, offered too little of those in a clear and coherent fashion, except for its ‘manifesto’ on local government just a few days before Monday’s vote.

That will not suffice for the general election if the PNP is intent on being perceived as the government-in-waiting.

Neither party, on its face, was attractive to independent voters, especially young people, who have grown disenchanted with the electoral process, as is demonstrated by the island’s low, and declining, voter turnout.

Which is not good for Jamaica’s democracy, notwithstanding Mr Holness’ celebration of Monday’s election as a vindication of democracy and a statement that “our institutions are strong”. They are vulnerable and, if not appropriately engaged, could well atrophy. Ensuring that this does not happen is an urgent obligation for both the JLP and the PNP – Prime Minister Holness and Mr Golding.

The opinions on this page, except for The Editorial, do not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Gleaner.