Close indeed, who won the local government elections?
THE LONG-AWAITED local government elections (LGE) are over and the jury is still out. Both parties are claiming victory. Have we ever seen this in any election before? I can’t recall.
No LGE in my memory has generated so much national interest, has witnessed so much effort from the respective party leaders, has seen so much media attention, both formal and social media and no prior LGE has galvanised the interest of the voting public to this extent. Yet, the turnout was disappointingly low against the hype and the build-up and the degree of importance attached to this election.
The contrasting atmosphere in the respective camps and party headquarters once the results were fairly clear spoke volumes as to how each of the party leaders and supporters viewed these results.
The People’s National Party (PNP) headquarters was abuzz with excitement, jubilant supporters were loud and celebratory. On the other hand, very few supporters were to be seen, much less heard at the JLP base. These are normally tell-tale signs of how the election results are being interpreted. The JLP leader appeared and gave a press conference close to midnight, very unusual.
IMPLICATIONS
So, what are the implications of the results of this election?
The PNP clearly won the popular vote, gaining some 20,000 more votes than the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) across the island. LGEs are not determined on the basis of the popular vote, so as the JLP leader correctly stated, the JLP won the election on the basis of them winning more of the councils. At the time of writing, it appears that the incumbent JLP government won seven of the councils to the PNP’s six. The PNP opposition also appears to have won the majority of the divisions. All marginally so.
The popular vote by itself is indeed not the key measuring rod of victory in LGEs, but against the background of an impending national election some 18 months away, this “victory” assumes greater than normal significance.
An early national election was on the cards had the JLP also won the national vote, especially if this was accompanied by victory on the basis of the number of councils won. Indeed, the rising level of disaffection with the JLP, confirmed in both national polls conducted by MRSL and supported by a high degree of anecdotal sayings across the country, would have influenced the calling of national election within the next four to six months had the JLP won the national vote. The results of yesterday’s elections have spoiled that focus.
Instead, as the JLP leader said in his rather sombre midnight press conference, the government will now truly focus on delivering to the people of the country, through the local thrust, the kinds of services that they all know are well needed, but which have been neglected in the process of the focus on national macro issues. The fact that from an international perspective the macro picture looks good, with inflation trending down and unemployment at an all-time low has not inspired a high degree of public confidence among the wider population in their ability to feed themselves on a daily basis. In other words, consistent surveys have shown that the rank and file of the population do not believe the positive national indicators are trickling down sufficiently to them. Our company has some 88 quarters of data, compiled over 22 years of continuous work in this area, which speak to this fact.
GO A FAR WAY
The performance of the PNP will go a far way in strengthening their own belief that they are still relevant as a party and that they can compete successfully on a national level. This performance is likely to re-energise the base of the party and encourage more to come out in future elections. But the impact is also likely to be felt among private sector donors who, accustomed as they are to play it safe and back both parties at election time, to loosen the financial strings and give a greater degree of support to the PNP. This is inevitable as no one likes to back a loser. In the past 7 years or so, the PNP has been considered to be a loser, given the raft of divisiveness within the party which saw them soundly beaten in the 2020 national election.
This performance by the PNP then will go a far way in boosting the confidence of both its leaders and its supporters.
The disappointingly low turnout (29 per cent) despite the significant presence of the respective leaders on the campaign trail, also confirms what our data has shown in recent polls, that the country is slowly moving away from a time-honoured leader-centric environment and are becoming more issues focused. This is great for democracy.
Indeed, the PNP might feel it has the opportunity to speak of the role its leader played in this election and what they see as the benefits of him pressing flesh in a significant number of divisions across the country. Whilst his presence would have gone some way in helping to galvanise the support of the base, there is no clear empirical evidence to suggest that this was the key difference in the resurgence of the party in this election. Rather, it appears that the party was able to organise themselves better on the day of election, much better than they have done in the recent past. The base does indeed appear to be re-energised.
But the fact that the PNP won the national vote under his leadership will go a far way in quelling any thought of challenging him for the leadership of the party, a fact which should see the re-emergence of the veneer of unity within the party, so glaringly missing over the last 10 years or so. Divided parties do not win elections.
Both parties can take away strong positives from this election, which makes it so unique. But neither can afford to rest on its laurels acquired from “victory” which both claim. It is hoped that this reality will redound to the benefit of the people of this country and that instead of self-serving management of people’s lives that finally the thrust will be to ensure that there is accountability, transparency and good governance from whoever wins the next national election. But the work starts now, with renewed focus on the local level, with the enactment of long overdue review of the local government and with a clearer emphasis on the execution of responsibilities that are rightly in the purview of the local councils.
NOT WELL INFORMED
Polls conducted by my organisation earlier last month clearly reveal that the voters at large are not well informed as to what are the key areas of responsibility of the local councils. It is imperative, therefore, that deliberate effort be made to convey to the voters what are the specific roles of the municipal councils so that they can be held accountable for their actions or non-actions. Reforms must also ensure that neither central government nor MPs can usurp the roles of the councillors in carrying out these functions. In this way, municipal councils will become more sensitive to the needs of the communities they serve and assessment of the performance of the councils can be made on clear and informed bases.
In this way, councillors who are felt to be largely absent or frequently missing from their divisions can be brought to book early and pressured to perform or to exit the scene for non-performance.
The fact that the results of this LGE could not be finalised up to four days after the closure of the polling stations, with both sides claiming victory, emphatically confirms the finding from the latest poll by the Market Research Services Limited polling team (which had the parties separated by one percentage point), that the election would be extremely close.