The winner is … the People’s National Labour Party
NO SPIN doctors needed! There is an orange tide; not a tsunami. Reality ‘cheque’; before you start spending. Remember, the popular vote went to the 71 per cent of Jamaicans who kept the index finger dry, and stuck the middle finger in the direction of both major political parties. This is consistent with the RJRGLEANER Don Anderson polls, which indicated that 40 per cent of electors reported that they would not be interested in voting for any of the parties.
By any metric whatsoever, where there is such a wide-scale boycotting of the ballots, it simply means that the political parties have failed to spark the imagination of the nation, and those is in power, and opposition, do not have the confidence of the majority of the electorate. That is a sobering thought for persons who think that they have a lot to celebrate.
Intriguingly, both the People’s National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are claiming victory. One can excuse Opposition Leader Mark Golding for celebrating on election night that his party had won, even as he tried to walk it back, clarifying that it was the popular vote. True, Mark is a lawyer and legal facts are not quite the same as academic data. The truth is the PNP, unless one tries to qualify it with some kind of disclaimer, did very well. However, it did not ‘win’ the local government elections.
There are 13 parish councils, and these were parish council elections. The JLP won seven and the PNP six. Unless your math teacher was abducted and went missing in grade school, seven is more than six.
Popular votes are good for bragging rights, and for proving that opinion polls, done using the sociological method, are accurate. In this regard, Anderson and the RJRGLEANER group are the winners.
PICKED MORE SEATS
Of course, compared to the last elections, the PNP picked up more seats, more parish councils and the popular vote. However, a party, whose history reveals it losing a general election, despite a decisive popular vote margin, ought to know better than to count its chickens. In the 1949 general election, despite the JLP seeing its majority reduced and notching only 199,538 votes to the PNP’s 203,048; it won by three seats; 17 to the PNP’s 13.
It is not unusual for spoiled eggs to have green yolks, even though the first six had bright orange middles. Moreover, the white albumin of the egg is not enough to gain the favour or the people’s flavour, because the character of the egg is the yolk.
But give the party its due. With the victory in Kingston and St Andrew, and the mayoral race in Portmore, it heads the most populous communities on the island. A cursory aggregation of votes, according to divisions within constituencies, suggests that if this were a general election, the PNP would win around 32 seats to the JLP 31. Note, however, that parliamentary aspirants do not necessarily enjoy the same support as the councillors.
History is a great teacher; despite the biggest liar I know being a historian. Right now, there is a large body of Jamaicans waiting for a good reason to vote in the next election.
True, given the numbers, the electorate is falling out of love with the JLP. Still, what is happening now is akin to a woman who decides to break up with her boyfriend and is ‘single’. However, she is open to dating.
PREDICTIVE VARIABLES
As I have stated in this column, on speech platforms and in academic publications, the evidence is that, since 1944, there are several predictive variables in determining if an incumbent party is going to lose the next general election.
First, a government must have either become anti-labour or obviously less prolabour. Second, it must be perceived as being hostile to the processes of democracy, and in particular, freedom of the press or expression. Furthermore, inasmuch as 73 per cent of Jamaicans believe that most elected officials are corrupt and 80 per cent consider politicians of both parties, on the whole, to be venal, electors punish governments who act with impunity, when persistently unanswered questions are asked about pesky issues, such as Trafigura, Mabey and Johnson and Manatt. Finally, every single government that loses the support of the middle and lower levels of the public sector workers, and especially the rank and file of the constabulary, invariably loses the next election.
Readers, who are either too young to remember the decades of the 1970s and the 1980s, only need to go back to 2010, when chairman of the Jamaica Police Federation, Raymond Wilson, made comments, criticising the JLP government for being indifferent towards corruption and criminality, while being insensitive to the welfare of the members at the rank of inspector and below. He was neatly removed and muted. Yet, the sentiments were not silenced.
An almost perfect microcosm of the society at large, the Jamaica Constabulary Force’s (JCF) largest body of members are the 70 per cent who are unbiased politically and committed to their oath, ‘Without favour, affection, malice or ill will.’
Simply put, there are not enough diehard Labourites or Comrades to politically swing the JCF, irrespective of where the loyalists are placed. The middle 70 per cent, just like those who voted with the middle finger, are the pulse of the heartbeat of the electorate.
Right now, the split is almost right down the middle, and I actually enjoy it deeply.
With seven mayors each and the JLP controlling the ministries and budget, it still has more manoeuvrability in bringing the apathetic 70 per cent to ‘green pastures’; even if it means walking through the valley of ‘debt’.
A chess game is on in earnest. For their repulsive actions Dennis has been sent to the Meadows and Warmington provoked the party to wrath and finally pushed the grass cart too far.
Democracy is alive.