The PNP and JLP are right: they both lost
I PROMISED to share my analysis of the published results of last week’s local government election. Today I compare them to the last local government election ( 2016) to identify winners and losers.
First, let me state my dissatisfaction with the 2024 results as published by the Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ). First, the ECJ has not revealed the number of spoiled votes – not even a total – so we do not know the actual number of people who cast ballots (we have that data for 2016); we only know the number of persons who cast valid ballots. You have to include spoiled ballots to calculate the actual turnout.
Second, the report double-counts the twelve divisions in the Portmore Municipality. The sum total of votes cast is given as 301,043 for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and 326,450 for the People’s National Party (PNP); but this total includes the 10,877 and 14,847 votes cast for the JLP and PNP in the Municipality of Portmore; all these people voted twice (legally!).
The total number of votes cast in the thirteen Municipal Corporations was 604,107 – 290,166 (48.03 per cent) for the JLP, 311,603 (51.57 per cent) for the PNP, and 2,418 for other candidates.
The total number of voters on the list is stated on the ECJ website as 2,001,759. This means that the turnout (less the spoiled votes) was 30.18 per cent, compared to 30.06 per cent in 2016 (including spoiled votes). According to my calculations, a slightly larger proportion of the listed voters turned out this time than last time.
The ECJ reports a lower turnout rate last week Monday of 29.6 per cent. This means that they are using a larger voters list than what is reported on their website. I remain dissatisfied with the reporting of the election results by the ECJ. Until otherwise informed, I will stick with my calculations.
NONE OF THE ABOVE WINS
It also means that the parties (JLP/PNP) won the support of only 14.50 per cent and 15.57 per cent of those on the voters list. “None of the above” wins again – by six lengths!
The November 2022 voters list used last week had 152,747 more names than the list used in 2016. Even so, the JLP gained only 2,425 more votes than in 2016, compared with the PNP who won 53,773 more. This fact was decisive, resulting in the JLP suffering a net loss of 17 divisions to the PNP.
But the summary data does not tell the whole story; the PNP did not have it all their own way. The JLP actually flipped 11 divisions away from the PNP to their corner. But what created the impression in people’s minds that the JLP was losing, was the fact that the PNP flipped 28 divisions away from the JLP.
Despite the huge expansion of the voters list between 2016 and 2024, of the 113 divisions the JLP won in 2024, 59 were won with fewer votes than in 2016 (their winning margins are shrinking). Of the 115 divisions won by the PNP in 2024, only 12 were won with fewer votes than in 2016 (their winning margins are expanding).
With so much data in hand, I decided to test a hypothesis: that “local election results are a reliable predictor of general election results”. First I measured the success of the 2016 local elections in predicting the results of the 2020 general election; and then using the 2024 local election results, I hazard a prediction of the results of the upcoming 2025 general election.
A caveat is that there was a lag of four years between 2016 and 2020, but only one year between 2014 and 2015. Let’s go!
Aggregating the 2016 local election data into constituencies, there was only fair correlation with the 2020 general election results, probably because of the four-year lag. If the 2016 local election was actually a general election, the JLP would have won 42 seats to 21 for the PNP. In the 2020 general election, the JLP actually won 49 seats to 14 seats for the PNP.
SEVEN SEATS
Which were the seven seats that prevented perfect correlation?
1. Central Kingston, held in 2016 by one Ronald Thwaites, who did not contest in 2020.
2. Hanover Western, held in 2016 by Ian Hayles, who was cited by the Integrity Commission, and lost the 2020 election.
3. Westmoreland Western, held in 2016 by Wykeham McNeill – and his father before him – who lost it when he was a PNP vice-president.
4. Westmoreland Central, an old PNP seat held by Karl Blythe for years and then Roger Clarke.
5. Westmoreland Eastern, P.J. Patterson’s old seat – a PNP stronghold.
6. St Elizabeth North East, Sydney Pagon’s old stronghold.
7. Manchester Central, held in 2016 by Peter Bunting, who was defeated in 2020 by the newcomer Rhoda May Crawford.
Aggregating last week’s local election data into constituencies produced the following result: 32 seats for the JLP and 31 seats for the PNP – a repeat of the count from the 2016 general election. If the 2024 data are predictors, not only will the PNP take back all seven of the constituencies named above, but they are reasonably forecast to flip nine others:
1. St Andrew East Rural
2. St Thomas Eastern
3. St Mary Western
4. Trelawny Northern
5. St James West Central
6. St James Southern
7. Hanover Eastern
8. Manchester South
9. Clarendon North West
As a local government election it was close, with the JLP losing three to win by one municipal corporation; the same votes in a general election would see the JLP losing 16 constituencies, to win by only one parliamentary seat!
It is by now a cliché that an opinion poll is a snapshot of one point in time; no less a snapshot is a balloted poll. These figures could – no, will – change over the next year. Trend analysis would forecast a further shift to the PNP over the next year, with them winning the next general election.
So who won the local government election last Monday? What I know is that both the PNP and the JLP lost. But maybe the JLP lost more? I don’t see them celebrating.v