Who do you serve?
MANY – even some schooled political watchers – were surprised at how much ground the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) lost to the People’s National Party (PNP) in last month’ s local government elections. Either they give little credence to scientific political opinion polls, or they put great store in the ability of parties with deep pockets swollen by secret private sector donations to buy votes for themselves, or to block votes for the opposite side.
Even while vociferously insisting that they had won the election, the JLP seemed in little mood for celebration, while the PNP were ecstatic at the results!
But neither party should be happy with the fact that they could each barely attract fifteen per cent of the available votes. Both parties are down to their fast-shrinking diehards, and the “popular vote” the PNP crows about winning is largely the “get out the JLP” protest vote, not the “I love the PNP” votes they would like them to be.
After the PNP wins the upcoming general election, these will quickly become “get out the PNP” votes unless there is a fundamental change of direction, which seems unlikely.
Jamaica’s version of democracy is a queer concoction of contradictory practices. Supposed to result in government “for the people”, Jamaican administration shave largely been “for the donors” to the party coffers, and the arrangements put in place by JLP and PNP politicians around the so-called “Integrity Commission” are designed to protect the identities of the donors, knowledge of how much they give, and what they get in return.
This kind of corruption has been discussed in the public domain for decades, but instead of transparency slowly gaining ground, it is in retreat. Who got contracts from the government used to be a matter of public record, published by the National Contracts Commission; now it is a state secret. Who was under investigation by the Commission for the Prevention of Corruption was a matter of public record; now it is subject to a gag order. The establishment by JLP and PNP politicians of the Integrity Commission in 2017, by merging these commissions, was a step backward for the anti-corruption effort.
NOT FOOLS
Jamaicans are not fools. Support for both parties has fallen because both are perceived to be out to enrich themselves and their friends. The scandal of the 200-plus per cent increase the politicians gave themselves while pressuring public sector workers to take a much smaller increase (forgoing in the process several allowances and benefits) has left a sour taste in the mouths of several voters.
Is the government committed to serve the interests of the people, or do they have other masters? The government’s actions – supported by the opposition – have gone down well with the multilateral agencies, including the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These entities serve the interests of those who wish to make money off of us.
This, of course, is our history. The purpose of Jamaica and other colonies – from the days of slavery to the present – was to make money for others, and promote their national development and their bottom line. Peripheral places like Jamaica exist to enrich the centre, and the Jamaican government serves their interests when we make Jamaica a safe place for them to invest their money, not when we make Jamaica a safe place for us to live, work, and raise families. As inequality increases, our ratings with Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch increase.
The rhetoric before and after the election could hardly be any different, showing that someone has learned something.
Before the election the JLP campaigned on its rising ratings. It boasted that on September 13, 2023 Standard and Poor’s upgraded the Government of Jamaica’s (GoJ’s) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘B+’ to ‘BB-’ with a stable outlook. “The outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that Jamaica will continue to pursue cautious macroeconomic policy and maintain its commitment to prudent public sector financing and debt reduction, as well as supportive economic policies including a flexible exchange rate regime and effective monetary policy.”
On October 18, 2023 Moody’s upgraded the GOJ’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from ‘B2’ to ‘B1’ and revised the outlook from Stable to Positive.
On March 5, 2024 Fitch Ratings upgraded Jamaica’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency and LocalCurrency IDRs to ‘BB-’ from ‘B+’. The Outlook remains Positive.
In addition, Fitch has upgraded Jamaica’s Country Ceiling to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-’.
WHAT ABOUT JAMAICAN PEOPLE?
All well and good! As we rigorously pursue policies to become the darlings of the IMF, World Bank, the IDB, Moodies, Fitch, and Standard & Poor’s, what about the ratings of the Jamaican people?
Well, the people have spoken: not good enough!
Post-election the government seems to have got the message. The budget debate so far has been full of claims that the government all along has been committed to improving the lives and welfare of Jamaicans. Nobody believes it, but I expect more of this kind of talk as the debate progresses.
We are now in general election campaign mode. The JLP know that the swing is against them, and the PNP smell victory. This 2024-2025 budget is already cast, but expect the 2025-2026 budget to be full of goodies.
I do not believe that this is going to impress the voters. Jamaicans want the Patterson Report on Education Transformation to be implemented, not PR jingles. Jamaicans will support meaningful constitutional reform after genuine public education and consultation; they will not be satisfied with PR jingles. Some small numbers of Jamaicans will sell their votes, but the majority have a strong sense of fair play. If no steps are taken by either party to increase transparency and reduce corruption, turnout will be low, and the government will be voted out.
And if the PNP do no better, they too will be voted out.
Time for fundamental change. But from where will it come? Our corner is dark indeed!