Pandemic, Games hurt LDP, propel Tomin First at polls

The Liberal Democratic Party faced an uphill battle in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election held Sunday, allowing the regional party Tomin First no Kai to catch up in the final stages of the race. The policies of the administration of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, such as measures to deal with the novel coronavirus pandemic and holding the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics with spectators, became headwinds for the LDP.

As the election results will affect the future of national politics, anxiety is growing about the upcoming House of Representatives election, which must be held by the autumn.

“It looks like Tomin First no Kai is pretty strong,” Suga said to Hiroshi Miura, an election planner, who visited the prime minister’s official residence on Sunday.

Gaining the majority with partner Komeito in the assembly election was a top priority not only for the LDP, which suffered a historic defeat in the last election, but also for the prime minister, who is the party’s president.

In April, three Diet elections were held as the first test for the Suga administration, and the LDP lost all of them, including one in which the party did not field a candidate. Later, the party’s nominated candidates in the gubernatorial elections in Chiba, Shizuoka and Yamagata also lost, fueling anxiety within the party about the prime minister being the face of the party’s elections.

According to a party survey, the LDP was on track to double its 25 seats in the assembly by outpacing Tomin First until halfway through the election campaign. The prime minister told those around him that he was confident of victory, saying, “If we manage to get 50 seats, that would be good.”

Toward the end of the race, however, Tomin First made a comeback, and the situation took a turn for the worse for the struggling LDP.

The prime minister showed up at the kick-off ceremony of the election campaign at party headquarters, but did not take part in any stumping. Without the prospect of containing the infections, he intended to show he prioritized responses to the pandemic, according to Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato.

But the decision for Suga not to stump was also partly so he would not be exposed to criticism from the public as there has been trenchant opposition to holding the Olympics amid the pandemic.

Among those who pounded pavement in the capital on behalf of the prime minister were Cabinet members and senior party officials. Taro Kono, the minister for regulatory reform who is also in charge of COVID-19 vaccine programs, grabbed the microphone at more than 20 locations.

“We have surpassed 1 million doses a day,” said Kono on the streets, appealing to the public the government’s achievement. This strategy was based on the hope that the acceleration of vaccination would provide a tailwind for the LDP.

An LDP official pointed out, however, that the government’s decision to stop accepting applications for workplace vaccination “gave the impression that there was a shortage of vaccines, which negatively affected [the LDP].”

Toward the end of the campaign, as

a rebound in infections in the capital became clearer, support grew for Tomin First, which pledged to hold the Olympics without spectators. The LDP camp, which backs holding the Olympics with spectators, made a series of requests to the prime minister to say that holding the Olympics without spectators is an option.

Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi also urged the prime minister to “consider the possibility of holding the games without spectators and take measures flexibly.”

As if in response, the prime minister declared on July 1 that “having no spectators [at the Games] is a possibility,” in a desperate attempt to stop the rally by Tomin First.

Despite these efforts, public support for the LDP did not grow much.

The prime minister’s strategy to win the assembly election and gain momentum

for the next lower house election went off the rails.

An LDP official said impatiently: “The reasons for the uphill campaign were the coronavirus and the Olympics. [The loss] will impact the House of Representatives election enormously.”

With the opening of the Olympics approaching, the prime minister will continue to face difficult situations.

The approval rating of the Cabinet, which seems inversely proportional to the number of infected people, is still at its lowest level. If the infections spread further after the opening ceremony of the Olympics, the prime minister may not be able to dissolve the House of Representatives in September as he envisions.

The immediate task for Suga is to curb the infections through progress in vaccination and to make the Olympics a success. (July 6)