The Japan News by The Yomiuri Shimbun
Kishida faces trio of hurdles in critical year as new conflicts arise
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida needs to overcome three hurdles this year — an ordinary Diet session to be convened later this month, the uni ed local elections, and specifying measures for tax increases associated with a planned boost in defense spending.
Tensions are likely to increase in the political arena since it is possible that the prime minister may decide to dissolve the House of Representatives and call a general election, depending on whether his Cabinet’s approval ratings improve.
CHALLENGES
“I want this year to be the one when I grapple with new challenges,” Kishida said in his rst press conference of the year on Jan. 4. Speaking to reporters after a visit to Ise Jingu shrine in Ise, Mie Prefecture, he also said he will “grapple with the issues that cannot be postponed by honestly tackling them head on, one by one, and providing answers to them.”
Kishida used the word “grapple” repeatedly to emphasize his strong commitment to e orts to combat the declining birth rate and other issues.
e prime minister’s top-priority policy goal is the early passage of the budget for scal 2023, set to include a record ¥6.8 trillion in defense spending.
In December, the government revised the National Security Strategy and two other key security documents in an effort to drastically strengthen the nation’s defense capabilities.
e government also introduced a new energy strategy, announcing a revised policy to use nuclear power plants in a proactive manner.
During deliberations on budget proposals at an ordinary Diet session, heated debates are expected between the ruling bloc and opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which has intensi ed its opposition.
Some within the Liberal Democratic
Party have oated the idea of reshu ing the Cabinet by replacing several ministers before the ordinary session to help buoy the administration. Kishida, however, is likely to hold o on a reshu e for the time being as he is more concerned about the risk of another scandal involving ministers and others.
“As long as there are no scandals, we can get through debates with the opposition,” a senior government o cial said, as defense or energy policy-related posts are now held by veteran lawmakers.
ey include Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura.
NEW CONFLICTS
Kishida will face a rigorous test of his management competence within the LDP when, for instance, setting a date to start raising taxes associated with the planned boost in defense spending.
When Kishida put tax hikes on the agenda to secure nancial resources to strengthen the nation’s defense in December, some within the LDP criticized him. Some of this criticism came from the Abe faction, the party’s largest, once led by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
A scal 2023 tax reform outline announced by the LDP and its ruling coalition partner Komeito speci es increases in three taxes — corporate, income and tobacco — as revenue sources.
With the time frame for the hikes described only as an “appropriate time in or a er 2024,” internal LDP con icts are likely to are up.
As a con ict immediately at hand, there will likely be a confrontation within the LDP between those in favor of the tax hikes and those wanting a more cautious approach during the preparation of the Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform, which is to be compiled in June. Regarding the plan advocated by Kishida to double the budget for children, measures to secure
nancial resources, including raising taxes, need to be presented.
A leadership contest in the largest LDP faction also is expected to be intensi ed by July 8, the rst anniversary of Abe’s death.
Potential leadership candidates who are cautious about a tax hike, including Koichi Hagiuda, chairperson of the LDP’s Policy Research Council, and Hiroshige Seko, LDP secretary general in the House of Councillors, are likely to intensify their moves.
Some LDP members, including a former cabinet minister, said that the House of Representatives should be dissolved and a mandate be sought through a national election, if the Cabinet’s approval rating recovers a er a good showing by the ruling parties in the uni ed local elections and by-elections for the lower house.
At the press conference on Jan. 4, the prime minister stressed the possibility of an election before October 2025, when the terms of current members of the lower house are to expire.
“ere can be an election before the tax hike. I will make a decision on the matter in my authority as prime minister,” he said.
ELECTIONS
e fate of the Kishida Cabinet is likely to depend on the results of the uni ed local elections, plus concurrent by-elections for Chiba Constituency No. 5, Wakayama Constituency No. 1 and Yamaguchi Constituency No. 4. With no major national elections scheduled for the rest of the year, a source close to the prime minister said: “e approval ratings for the Cabinet and the prime minister’s leadership can recover if the administration manages to get through the elections.”
However, there have been cases when the results of uni ed elections and by-elections for the lower and upper houses dealt a heavy blow to the government, leading to its collapse.
In the April 2011 uni ed local elections during the administration of Prime Minister Naoto Kan, candidates backed by the ruling Democratic Party of Japan su ered a complete defeat in gubernatorial elections in Tokyo, Hokkaido and Mie prefectures, which were battlegrounds between the DPJ and LDP.
e DPJ also fared poorly in the Hokkaido prefectural assembly election, and failed to even eld a candidate in the by-election for Aichi Constituency No. 6, which was held at the time. e LDP and Komeito ratcheted up pressure to force Kan to step down, and his Cabinet resigned en masse in August that year. (Jan. 6)