Bending to China may jeopardize Korea-US relations
A former U.S. government official warned that any decision by South Korea to yield to China’s trade curbs may jeopardize the Seoul-Washington alliance.
“Wrong decisions — anything seen as aid or compromise with the North Korean state — or bending to Chinese economic blackmail, could have disastrous consequences for our long-lived alliance and friendly relations,” Georgetown University School of Foreign Service professor William Brown told The Korea Times.
The warning came amid a deepening dispute between Seoul and Beijing as China is taking retaliatory measures against South Korea through a boycott of Korean products and pressuring tourism agencies not to book tours to Korea over the deployment of the U.S. advanced missile defense system.
Brown, who previously worked for the CIA, the Commerce Department and the National Intelligence Council, said that two countries could become detached if a new president were to draw the wrong lessons from Trump’s victory last year.
Korea’s new leader will be elected in a snap election on May 9.
He believes any wrong decision could make Trump take drastic action because Trump is under growing pressure from Americans who feel increasingly frustrated over military spending overseas.
“Washington think tanks and American — and many Korean — academics and pundits badly misread the degree to which Americans are growing weary of the costly military forces we have overseas leading to unsustainable federal fiscal and foreign trade deficits,” he said.
“They want a smaller, less costly and less taxing government. Trump wants a bigger military but he said he expects our allies, pointedly including Korea, to work harder to defend themselves. Some Americans incorrectly see Korea’s economic success as subtracting from the U.S. economy.”
The Washington-based Korea expert stressed it is important to understand that the Trump administration’s “America first” policy and Korean success are not at odds with each other.
“We are not rivals or even competitors,” he said. “Hopefully the new Korean leader and Trump can get together early on and iron out a new strategic plan for our relationship that will drive us to long-term economic stability and growth and success in dealing with North Korea.”
Against this backdrop, Brown advised Korea to build a stronger alliance with the U.S.
“The new leader should draw strength by moving closer to Washington, one that does not have conflicting interests in the region, while maintaining friendly independence from China and Japan and improving preemptive defenses against North Korea,” he said.
Brown, a research fellow at the Korea Economic Research Institute, said Korea needs a strong leader but maybe not one with too much charisma, which might lead to trouble with the likes of Putin, Xi, Abe and even Trump.
“The person needs to be intelligent, and willing to quickly learn from the rough neighborhood of Northeast Asia,” he said.
Citing lingering geopolitical risks, powerful neighbors and vociferous Korean people, he described Korea’s president as the toughest job in the world.
“All the Korean presidents in modern history ran into great political difficulties making me think the Korean presidency is the hardest job on the planet,” he said.
“Having to wrestle every day with North Korea, powerful neighbors such as China, Russia and Japan, the U.S., and Korea’s own raucous citizenry, should be enough to drive anyone crazy.”
Brown, who served as a senior research fellow at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul in the 1980s, called Korea a “proverbial shrimp” compared to China, Russia and Japan.
“Lacking peers in their day-to-day relationships, Korea’s leaders often have a hard time knowing when to be tough and when to compromise,” he said.