Envoy, THAAD and Korea-China ties
The seating arrangement “mishap” during the meeting between Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s special envoy, Lee Hae-chan, was seen as seemingly innocuous, but in fact, was a carefully planned diplomatic discourtesy. It was meant to send a signal to the newly minted Moon government that it should not entertain the idea that the change of government does not automatically mean that Seoul can now recover its relations with China, without having to halt the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here. As a presidential candidate, Moon argued that the THAAD issue should be left to the next government to decide. With Moon sworn in as the new leader, China has high expectations for him to move in that direction — to the extent of withdrawing THAAD.
Before the presidential election, Korean interlocutors who visited China attempted to lower Chinese expectations by conveying that “with THAAD already being deployed, it is difficult to undo.” Yet, China still believes that there is a fifty-fifty chance depending on how hard they try, utilizing a mix of both pressure and appeasement.
During the Korean envoy’s visit to China, Beijing underscored the importance of bilateral relations in front of the camera, but pressured the Korean envoy when the door was shut. On THAAD, China wants Korea to take “concrete measures” (juti de cuoshi) so as to reset their relations. The lifting of economic retaliation may just be “wishful thinking” on the side of South Korea, including the case of Lotte. On the day of the envoy’s visit, three Lotte outlets were allowed to resume their business; but three day afterwards they were shut down again, according to the Dong-a Ilbo.
In fact, the widespread news stories of the “lift” of China’s economic retaliation is not seen as part of a Chinese central government policy shift. The reactivation of Lotte Mart’s website, the price increases of China-related stocks, signs of resuming academic exchanges and calls to explore new business deals, all of them, are likely to be “opportunistic” maneuvers by some Chinese institutions and businessmen, preparing for the easing of the “anti-Korea” ban. The news that Xi made a congratulatory call to Moon prompted these people to react, for China is a country where the emperor’s cough implies a thousand words to his minions.
On THAAD, China appears to have decided not to consider a suggested list of “solutions,” proposed by the South Korean side. They are: 1) Moon’s proclamation that THAADwill only be used toward North Korea; 2) Seoul will not join the U.S.-led missile defense system; 3) the THAAD radar’s detection range will be adjusted; 4) once North Korean threat is removed THAAD will be removed.
The view that China too is in search of a “THAAD exit strategy” has been heard in South Korea in an amplified fashion, due to discord rendered by diverging positions between the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the hawkish People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
China wants Korea to take “concrete” measures rather than making “declarative” statements. Currently, China’s position seems: 1) withdraw THAAD; 2) if that is not feasible because THAAD is already deployed, then “unplug” it. While holding onto its “de jure” position, China is also willing to consider an “alternative” if it is substantive enough.
Xi didn’t mention the word “THAAD” during his meeting with Moon’s envoy, while everyone knew it was the most prominent bilateral issue. This was an important signal in China’s diplomatic ritual game. The official People’s Daily also placed the picture of Xi and the Korean envoy shaking hands on its front page, granting official significance to the event, despite the “seat arrangement fiasco.” This means China will continue consultations with the Moon government on the issue. This is considered a progress from the previous Park administration when China even refused to meet with Park’s officials after she announced the deployment of THAAD.
China will likely be in a “wait and see” mode, without exacerbating its current level of economic retaliation. It will carefully watch how the Moon government handles the THAAD issue, including discussions at the National Assembly. In this way, it will try to bypass the international criticism over its economic retaliatory behavior against South Korea. China will also occasionally allow some “hallyu” stars to perform there. This is likely to create unnecessary confusion and debate in some pockets of the opinion field, regarding whether China has lifted its economic retaliation or not.