Putin places a bet on N. Korea
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin recently had their first meeting in Germany. How ironic to have American and Russian presidents meeting in Germany to solve the world’s problems.
North Korea was only a passing topic previously, but the missile launch on July 4 has raised the ante.
Most of the session was to be photo ops, but now it has been upgraded to a full “bilateral” meeting which will allow each man to “measure” the other.
Trump is instinctive and tries to develop rapport with those he meets and wants to influence. Putin, the KGB-trained officer/agent handler, can flow with a conversation to ingratiate himself or at least to keep an open door.
Even his harshest opponents and enemies concede that Putin is operationally adroit and does very well on low cost, long shot bets.
Last year he pulled out the disinformation playbook and let some of his junior varsity agents play “reindeer games” with the U.S. election. Some pieces from Snowden, some items to Wikileaks, and hits on the Democratic National Committee as an easy fluffy sheep ready for sheering.
Putin’s win on his $2 long-shot, twin double in the U.S. election was doubtless a surprise. He may not have gotten the grand prize, lifting of sanctions, but he has the consolation of the USG devoting absurd amounts of prime policy energy to Trump’s putative Putin connections. And Hillary Clinton ended in the Kremlin’s figurative dumpster.
A distracted American is easier to deal with if you are a KGB-trained operative now functioning as head of state.
So, what next for Putin? He and President Xi just met in Moscow with their own plan for bilateral trade.
For Russia, the easily available low cost, high potential rate of return bet would be on Pyongyang and Dear Young Leader. Putin does not have to change any North Korean behavior to win. All he must do is pot stirring and adding some resources and assistance to Kim Jong-un to keep him disconcerting the U.S., South Korea, China, and Japan.
Nuclear and missile technology of varying vintages? Coal and oil? Not a problem. Russia has ships for transport and/or a land border making transport easy to hide.
Deniability? It’s just private Russian citizens doing sort of legal deals under U.N. sanctions.
There is even potential profit for Putin/cronies. North Korea exports some commodities that might be marketable, but the real cash cow would be North Korean labor. Pyongyang’s crews work on projects from Vladivostok to St. Petersburg and at many points in-between.
Timing is good. Secretary Tillerson’s effort to get the Chinese to force North Korea to stop its nuclear and ballistic missile programs has gone nowhere. The Americans are on their heels.
A discreet Russian approach that gives the Dear Young Leader a back door from his conundrum will be welcomed. And Putin can do it on the cheap.