Biden-Kishida summit and Korean politics

U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a summit in Washington on April 10. After two hours of talks, they held a joint press conference.

The Biden-Kishida summit has been characterized by Washington as a historic opportunity for the two countries to modernize their alliances as both eye regional threats from North Korea’s weapons testing and burgeoning relations with Russia to China’s aggression in the South China Sea and Taiwan.

Japan has long been a central partner of the United States in the Indo-Pacific, but the defense relationship has expanded under Kishida, who has raised Japan’s profile in global and regional security.

He has overseen a sweeping shift in Tokyo’s defense posture, veering away from the pacifist constitution imposed by the United States in the aftermath of World War II to boost defense spending to about 2 percent of its GDP by 2027 and acquire counterstrike capabilities.

Kishida also positioned Japan as a partner to the U.S. not only in Asia but also globally.

He has championed the view that security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific are inextricably linked while emerging as a staunch supporter of Ukraine and closely aligning with the Group of Seven countries.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a resurgence of ties between Moscow and Pyongyang that had largely elapsed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kim Jong-un’s September 2023 trip to Russia and summit with Vladimir Putin was a breakthrough in bilateral relations and confirmed the growing military and diplomatic relationship between the two countries.

Kim doubled down on his support for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, depicting it as a fight to “punish the evil forces that ambitiously pursue hegemony and expansion.”

On March 28, Russia vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution to extend the mandate of the panel of experts responsible for monitoring North Korea’s violations of U.N. sanctions.

Russia’s veto highlights a policy reversal in its attitude toward the United Nations. With Russia actively supporting North Korea, the U.N. will increasingly struggle to restrain North Korea’s belligerence at a time when it’s expanding its nuclear and missile capabilities, as demonstrated by recent tests of new missile technology.

North Korean arms enable Moscow to continue its aggression against Ukraine. If Russia remains desperate for North Korean weapons, Moscow may be willing to provide more sensitive technology for its nuclear and missile programs.

Therefore, the U.S. should make absolutely clear to its friends and foes alike that it will defend its allies by continually reaffirming its extended deterrence guarantee to use all necessary force, including nuclear weapons, in response to a North Korean attack.

The credibility of the U.S. extended deterrence guarantee requires that capabilities are effective, commitment is consistent, and both enemies and allies are convinced of America’s resolve. The Biden administration should step up its enforcement of U.S. and U.N. sanctions and work systematically with the international community to target North Korean, Russian and Chinese violators as well as banks, businesses and shipping companies that assist illicit actions.

While China and Russia will veto approval of any new U.N. resolutions, the United States and its partners can more fully implement existing measures, including the extensive sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.

The end of U.S. President Biden’s Executive Order last year on “Taking Additional Steps with Respect to the Russian Federation’s Harmful Activities” is a useful new tool for targeting Russia’s procurement of dual-use and other critical items.

The U.S. can impose secondary sanctions, including exclusion from the U.S. financial system, on any financial institution that is supporting Russia’s defense industry.

A senior Biden administration official outlined the scale of Beijing’s growing support for Moscow’s war effort. He said that 90 percent of the reason Russia has been able to sustain the war effort and reconstitute its economy, despite sanctions, is due to a “massive effort” by China that ranges from geospatial assistance to dual-use optics and propellants used in everything from tanks to missiles.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent the message to European allies in Brussels, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned officials in Beijing, and President Biden raised the issue directly to President Xi Jinping in a telephone conversation on April 2. Meanwhile, on April 10, South Korea held general elections. The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) emerged victorious, winning a majority, with 175 seats out of 300 seats.

As a result, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s domestic and foreign policy will face significant headwinds, but it is expected that foreign policy will likely stay on its current course because Yoon’s foreign policy is not based on populism.

Since the beginning of his presidency, strong opposition from the DPK in the legislative body and a relatively low approval rating did not deter Yoon from reversing the previous government’s foreign policy.

He has realized his campaign pledge to strengthen the South Korea-U.S. alliance and take a tough stand on North Korea’s provocations and ensured that South Korea and the United States are in close alignment over their regional strategy.

Most importantly, Yoon has pushed forward to improve South Korea’s strained relationship with Japan despite the risk of political backlash at home.

The opposition party will probably increase its criticism of Yoon’s foreign policy, as DPK leader Lee Jae-myung advocated for neutrality in issues concerning the Taiwan Strait and Ukraine during the election campaign.

This position is the complete opposite of Yoon’s, which has sought to enhance South Korea’s global standing through enhanced support for Ukraine and promoting rules-based diplomacy. With the new National Assembly, this strategic division will most likely deepen, even at a time when South Korea faces a clear and present danger from North Korea.

President Yoon’s domestic and foreign policy will face significant headwinds.