Rapport between Kim Jong-un and Trump
“It is not the end of the world.” Professor Moon Chung-in made that comment during a recent interview when asked whether a second Trump presidency would spell disaster.
If those words were not spoken by the progressive political scientist who has laid the foundation of Korea’s current liberal North Korea policy architecture, I might have interpreted the response as an expression of hopelessness, suggesting an inability to change what seems inevitable.
During his first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump demonstrated a disruptive force that completely upended the global status quo with his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) mantra.
Now, the Republican candidate, who is leading in some polls over the incumbent President Joe Biden, whom he will likely face in the upcoming Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, is back with a vengeance and vowing to disrupt the global order. The world appears to be collectively concerned about the increasing possibility of a Trump re-election and is in a state of denial about the potential disruption to the existing world order.
So I combed through a threehour conversation I previously had with Moon for clues that might shed light on why he made those remarks. (Disclaimer: We have known each other for more than 10 years and have mostly maintained a friendly relationship.)
If he saw the potential viability of a new Trump presidency, even dyed-in-the-wool skeptics like us might adopt his reasoning and feel somewhat less despondent.
Then, I remembered Moon’s remark that the Biden administration had been a disappointment for lacking its own policy and for being influenced by advocates of maximum pressure from within the Yoon Suk Yeol administration.
Clearly, he anticipates a repeat of the three unprecedented summits between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who are the leaders of two old adversaries dating back to the 1950-53 Korean War. These summits took place during the previous liberal Moon Jae-in government.
During the period from the start of the Moon government in 2017 to 2022, the escalating tensions and exchanges between Trump and Kim became so intense that a second Korean War seemed imminent.
That standoff was alleviated as Trump circumvented bureaucratic red tape and resistance to directly engage with the North Korean leader in an attempt to resolve the Korean problem. This effort culminated in their summit at the truce village of Panmunjeom, where the Korean Armistice Agreement was signed seven decades ago. During this time, Korea seemed on the verge of achieving previously elusive and sustainable peace, as inter-Korean relations also improved.
The professor, who was a special adviser to former President Moon, played a key role in Seoul’s intensified policy of reconciliation with Pyongyang. He took credit for orchestrating the Panmunjeom summit, revealing that he had proposed the idea to Ivanka Trump, Trump’s daughter and trusted adviser, through an intermediary. This intermediary cleverly created a composite photo of Trump and Kim together at the truce village to enhance the appeal to the publicity-conscious former TV personality turned U.S. president.
So, is he confident that Trump 2.0 and Kim can return to their previous friendly relationship?
Moon believes that a return to their previous relationship could happen, but it would not be as straightforward as before. Five years ago, Kim Jong-un was a young leader who believed in the doctrine
that North Korea’s survival depended on maintaining a relationship with the United States, a principle upheld by his father Kim Jong-il and grandfather Kim Il-sung, the founder of the Kim dynasty.
The younger Kim had the opportunity to interact with Trump on the world stage, a feat that his ancestors could only have dreamed of. However, Kim has also learned important lessons from his experience, including the realization that he cannot fully trust the U.S., particularly after the “no-deal” outcome with Trump.
However, Kim can afford to apply these lessons differently now, especially as China and Russia compete to court him. China, in particular, has come to appreciate North Korea as a crucial buffer against the U.S., especially amid rising tensions between the two superpowers. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly befriending Kim with the aim of supplying weapons for his war against Ukraine.
What about Trump? His problem is his short attention span and eagerness to attain the spotlight. Now, the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars are sure to be higher priorities than North Korea.
Moon suggests that Trump may prioritize intervening in global conflicts based on which ones offer him the best chance of achieving a Nobel Peace Prize through a successful resolution. “He would be anxious to have a legacy to show off,” said Moon.
It seems that Moon has concluded that South Korea can now adapt to and cope with the consequences, regardless of whether Trump or Biden becomes the next U.S. president.
This represents a notable departure from South Korea of 20 years ago when the late President Roh Moo-hyun adopted the professor’s proposition that the South should serve as a balancing force between the great powers in the region.
Roh’s policy of seeking to play an active role in international rule-setting was seen as ahead of its time and too ambitious for South Korea. His direction faced fierce opposition and appeared to be at risk of being derailed.
The professor’s “not-the-end-ofthe-world” comment has allowed me to reflect and compare the past with the present. My conclusion is that Moon’s proposition has been largely fulfilled, thanks to his tireless efforts to promote it.