Syria, Kurds press twin offensives

I.S. SHOOTING CIVILIANS FLEEING FALLUJA BATTLE

Russianbacked Syrian regime forces on Monday inched closer to a key stop on a vital Islamic State group supply line, as a twin offensive bore down on the jihadists’ northern stronghold.

The advance comes as 17 civilians — nearly half of them children — were killed in air raids on a popular market in eastern Syria on the first day of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan.

Government fighters entered the scramble for Tabqa at the weekend, when troops backed by Russian air strikes surged north towards the town on the banks of the Euphrates.

IS fighters in the town of Tabqa are now caught between the regime forces advancing from the southwest and US supported Kurdish and Arab fighters pushing in from the north.

The coincidence of the nearsimultaneous attacks has raised speculation about possible coordination between the United States and Russia in the anti-IS fight.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), last week launched an assault on Tabqa, its military base, and a nearby dam from the north of Raqa province.

But while they remain 60 kms (40 miles) north of Tabqa, the government surged forward on Monday, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Russian-backed government fighters are now within 24 kms (15 miles) of Lake Assad, the key reservoir in the Euphrates Valley contained by the Tabqa Dam, said the Britain-based Observatory.

Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said regime forces were “reinforcing their positions” south of the town.

“There is a joint operations room in Baghdad where the Iraqis and the Syrians are coordinating with the support of the Americans and the Russians,” a source close to the regime said on Monday.

Around Tabqa in particular, the source said, it would be “impossible” for the US and Russia to back their respective ground allies if they did not coordinate.

London-based analyst Matthew Henman stressed that any coordination between Washington and Moscow has so far been “informal”.

“There may be an element

of informal, top-level coordination to avoid any confusion or inadvertent clashes but full coordination is unlikely,” said Henman, who heads IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Research Centre.

Russia last month floated a proposal for joint air strikes with the US against jihadists in Syria, but the offer was swiftly rejected.

Two years after it shot to international infamy after declaring a fundamentalist “caliphate,” IS is coming under mounting pressure.

In Iraq, US-backed forces are laying siege to Falluja, held by IS since 2014.

In Syria, IS is also under attack in Aleppo province, after SDF fighters crossed the Euphrates near the border with Turkey and pushed west towards the jihadist-held Syrian city of Manbij.

Analysts suspect the SDF’s operational focus on Manbij may explain its minimal progress towards Tabqa.

Manbij lies at the heart of IS-held territory along the border that US commanders regard as the principal entry point for foreign fighters and funds.

Tabqa lies further along that route, closer to Raqa city.

Syria’s conflict has evolved into a complex war involving foreign powers since it started in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests.

Peace talks to end the five-year war — which has killed more than 280,000 people and displaced millions — have stalled and a related ceasefire is in tatters.

On Monday, 17 civilians, among them eight children, were killed in air strikes on a market in Al-Asharah, an IS-held town in eastern Deir Ezzor province.

“The market was overcrowded on Monday because people were shopping for Ramadan,” Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said, adding the strikes were likely carried out by either Russian or Syrian warplanes.

Neither IS nor its rival al-Qaeda was included in the truce between the regime and non-jihadist rebels which came into effect in February after efforts by Washington and Moscow.

While the battles for the key locations of Tabqa and Manbij intensify, it appears the fight for Raqa city — which would be a much more symbolic victory — has taken a backseat.

The US-backed SDF alliance’s offensive north of the IS stronghold last month started amid much fanfare.

But Henman said “Raqa will likely be one of, if not the last Islamic State bastion to fall in Syria”.

“Both Damascus and the Kurds would like to be the ones to do it and would prefer not to see the other in control of it.”

Syria expert Fabrice Balanche wrote the offensive was “far from a blitzkrieg that will bring the SDF to the outskirts of Raqa promptly.”

“Before the coalition even thinks about launching a final push on the city, it must rally the Arab tribes in the area, some of whom have pledged allegiance to IS.”

Shooting

The Islamic State group has been shooting at civilians as they try to flee the nearly two-week battle between Iraqi government forces and IS militants in the city of Falluja, west of Baghdad, an international aid organization and Iraqi military say.

On Sunday, the militants shot and killed seven civilians and seven IS defectors inside Falluja as they attempted to flee, Iraqi Maj. Ali Hanoon said.

Hanoon, who is with the elite Iraqi counterterrorism forces, on Monday put the number of civilians killed by IS since the operation started at “dozens” but declined to be more specific, saying the information coming out of Falluja is sporadic and often incomplete. Iraqi officials say the total is likely higher.

Iraqi forces, backed by US-led coalition airstrikes, have been fighting to retake the IS-held city of Falluja since late May but the advance stalled last week because of heavy resistance the militants have put up and because an estimated 50,000 civilians remain trapped inside the city. On Sunday, Iraqi forces secured the southern edge of Falluja, a largely agricultural area.

“They know that if they trap the civilians, it will slow our progress,” Hanoon said.

Last week, a suicide bomber blew himself up in a crowd of civilians attempting to flee Falluja, killing two people and wounded three, according to police.

From Baghdad, the Norwegian Refugee Council, which works with refugees and internally displaced Iraqis, said late Sunday that a number of fleeing civilians have been killed as they tried to cross the Euphrates River. Iraqi officials had no immediate information on the river incident.

The NRC cited interviews with some of those who fled the city,

“Our biggest fears are now tragically confirmed with civilians being directly targeted while trying to flee to safety,” said Nasr Muflahi, the NRC Country Director in Iraq. “This is the worst that we feared would happen to innocent men, women and children who have had to leave everything behind in order to save their lives.”

The NRC put the total number of families who managed to flee from the out-international skirts of Falluja in the early days of the Iraqi offensive, which started May 21, at 2,980. Only a couple more families have managed to escape from inside Falluja since then, the NRC added.

The Falluja operation in Iraq coincides with a twin offensive on IS-strongholds in neighboring Syria. Syrian Kurdish forces are advancing on Manbij, an IS-held city controlling the supply route between the Turkish border and the town of Raqqa, the militants’ de facto capital.

At the same time, Syrian government troops are advancing on Raqqa from the south.

An Iraqi Shi’ite militia leader accused government forces of “betrayal” as a split emerged between the Iranian-backed paramilitaries and the army over tactics for fighting Islamic State.

The head of the largest militia, Hadi al-Amiri, criticised the army for moving an armoured brigade to the Makhmour area near Mosul — Islamic State’s capital in northern Iraq — while the battle to dislodge the militants from Falluja, their stronghold near Baghdad, is still underway.

“Unfortunately there is an absence of precise planning for the military operations,” said Amiri, who leads the Badr Organisation. “I believe that sending a large number of armoured vehicles and assets to Makhmour, under the pretext of the Mosul battle, is a betrayal of the battle for Falluja,” he told Al-Sumaria TV on Sunday.

Badr Organisation is the largest component of the Popular Mobilisation, a militia grouping which has been fighting alongside the Iraqi army at Falluja, with government units also receiving air support from the US-led coalition.

Amiri also accused the Iraqi authorities of deciding to move the forces to Makhmour, which lies around 60-km (40 miles) south of Mosul, under pressure from the United States.

An army spokesman denied that the build up would affect the battle for Falluja, about 350-km south of Mosul, which the militias and Iraqi government forces are trying to regain after two years of Islamic State control.

The row reflects the diverging priorities of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi — a Shi’ite who was elected in 2014 on a promise to mend rifts with the Sunni Muslim minority — and the Shi’ite militias backed by Iran.

Falluja, which lies 50-km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, is a historic bastion of the Sunni insurgency against the US occupation and then against the Shi’ite-led authorities that took over after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, in 2003

Sunni politicians fear the participation of the Shi’ite militias in the assault could further inflame sectarian tensions.

Amiri is the second militia official to voice dismay over the Falluja assault. On Friday, a spokesman for Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Jawad al-Talabawi, said the operations had come to a near standstill and asked Abadi to order the resumption of attacks.

Abadi said on June 1 that the army had slowed its offensive over fears for the safety of tens of thousands of civilians trapped in the city with limited access to water, food and healthcare.

Iraqi army officers confirmed that an armoured brigade had arrived on Sunday night in Makhmour. This was part of preparations for an offensive to take an airfield that they plan to use in a future offensive on the city.

Bridges and boats have also been brought to facilitate the crossing of the Tigris river from Makhmour to Qayyara, where the airfield lies, they said, giving no indication of when the battle would

start.

Iraqi armed forces spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Rasool played down the effect of any mobilisation to capture Mosul. “I don’t believe it would impact the ongoing battle of Falluja,” he told Reuters. “The forces allocated to Falluja are achieving victories and we have started moving towards the city centre.”