Italy face Euro misery, England reach semis: Goldman Sachs

France most likely to win

LONDON, June 6, (RTRS): Italy, beaten finalists at the last European Championship, will have a miserable Euro 2016 while England will sail through to the semi-finals, according to Goldman Sachs, which put host nation France as most likely to win.

The investment bank, whose researchers more routinely analyse the world’s economies and financial markets, have crunched the numbers on the past and current form of the 24 teams heading for this week’s kickoff.

Its report, published on Monday, has some surprising predictions:

■ Four-times World Cup winners Italy have a meagre 1.5 percent chance of winning and will manage just three draws in the round-robin group stage.

■ France are favourites, with a 23.1 percent chance of winning, just ahead of World Cup champions Germany (19.9 percent).

■ England, who have not reached the semi-finals of a major tournament for 20 years, are, surprisingly, fourth (10.5 percent) in the rankings. Goldman Sachs predicts they will win their group and reach the semi-finals to lose to reigning champions Spain (ranked third with 13.6).

Italy coach Antonio Conte has played down expectations for his side, who went out of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil at the group stage. Struggling to find young talent, for his squad of 23 players, he has picked just seven aged 25 or under.

Goldman Sachs, which successfully predicted three of the four semi-finalists at the 2014 World Cup, suggests Conte — and Italian fans — face a dreary Euro 2016.

The Azzurri will draw 1-1 with Belgium, Sweden and Ireland in group E before losing to Portugal in the round of 16, according to the research.

France will start with a 3-1 victory over Romania in Friday’s opening match before reaching the final by knocking out Poland, Russia and Germany.

England, who last qualified for the final four when the tournament was held on home soil in 1996, are predicted to beat Russia, Slovakia and Wales (all 2-1) to win group B.

Defeats of Romania and Portugal in the knockout stages will take the English through to a semi-final clash with Spain who will go through to face France in the final.

The tournament has witnessed major upsets before, with Denmark winning in 1992 after initially failing to qualify. Little-fancied Greece produced a surprise triumph in 2004.

But Goldman Sachs has little hope for the smaller teams this time, giving Wales and Northern Ireland just a 0.1 percent chance of winning, behind Iceland on 0.2 percent. Only Albania is below them in the ratings at a hopeless 0.0 percent.

Bookmakers have been more kind to Wales, with William Hill putting the team at 66-1 to win, on a par with Russia, Turkey and the Czech Republic.

Iceland and Northern Ireland are at 80-1 and 250-1 respectively. France are William Hill’s favourites at 3-1 with Germany at 4-1, Spain at 5-1 and England at 8-1. Albania are the rank outsiders at 300-1.