Vitol’s Taylor sees Brent oil trading at $40-$55

Ian Taylor, head of the world’s largest independent oil trader Vitol, says Brent crude prices will stay in a range of $40-$55 a barrel for the next few quarters as higher US production slows a rebalancing of the market.

“Everybody was positioned for a market rebalancing and a stocks draw to happen in the second quarter. And if you look at the macro analysis, that should start happening,” Taylor said in an interview with Reuters.

“But so far it hasn’t happened and everyone has made the same mistake. Nobody has distinguished themselves.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers led by Russia have agreed to cut output by almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January 2017, hoping to bring global oil stocks down from record levels of over 3 billion barrels to a five-year average of around 2.7 billion.

But efforts have been somewhat undermined by rising production from Nigeria and Libya, the two OPEC members that have been excluded from cuts after unrest hit their output.

Recovering production in the United States has also added to the glut as a bounce in oil prices above $50 per barrel spurred new drilling in shale formations.

Taylor said he still expected the market to start rebalancing and stocks to decline in the third quarter. But he was less certain about the fourth quarter, when US shale producers could add more barrels.

“We believe the rebalancing and the stocks’ draw should still happen in the third quarter. It was simply delayed. The exceptional production factors - Nigeria, Libya and US shale -have been all larger than expected,” Taylor said. (RTRS)