The weird logic of politics – part II
“It is enough to knock the door or peek through the window; there is no need to beat around the bush.” (Charlotte Gray)
The reign of Barack Obama was the golden understanding era between the United States of America and Iran. During this period and weeks after the socalled ‘Arab Spring’ uprising in Syria, Iran extended its tentacles of interference to Syria, and then to Yemen through its friends – the Houthis.
This interference reached a point where one of the Iranian politicians publicly stated that Iran holds the decision of four Arab capitals – Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa. Obviously, this could not have happened without America turning, at least, a blind eye.
Since the change of administration from Obama to Donald Trump, the political harness between the US and Iran has been flipped upside down, and the strategy of the White House in the region has changed dramatically.
It is clear that ties of interests between the Gulf countries and the US made the latter turn its back on its covert ally – Iran, let alone the influence of economic deals which the Gulf countries have made with Trump.
Nonetheless, the focus here is on politics, not economics, given that the US tone towards Iran has dramatically changed, up to a point where the US pulled itself out of the deal it sponsored to curb Iran’s nuclear ambition.
One thing I failed to know is how credible the decision is, and if it is a game being played on the account of differences between Arabs and the Persians.
If we were to contemplate a little and look with a simple eye, Iran is still in Yemen through its friends whose missiles continue to pose a threat. The role of the US does not bring actual solution on the table, let alone on the ground.
The balance of influence in Lebanon continues to incline towards Iran’s favor, and its ally – Assad – continues to gain more ground and control over Syria day after day, whereas in Iraq and despite the recent electoral setback, Iran continues to be a major player in this country.
After all that, can we trust the American desires towards Iran? Politics is a game of contradictions. Trust has no ground in politics, because what matters are interests and tangible outcomes.
In this case, the outcome has not seen any significant changes. This could be seen through statements being issued in this regard and the meetings being held, let alone the actions on the ground.
Perhaps, we have misanalyzed the entire issue, but the pragmatism of the main players overwhelmed the friendly and adversary statements. As we all know, time will tell.