Iran braces as US sanctions kick in
Revolutionary Guard confirms naval drills
WASHINGTON, Aug 5, (Agencies): A wave of US sanctions kicks in against Iran on Tuesday, cementing Washington’s hard line against Tehran after President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear pact.
Already facing broad economic fallout as their currency implodes, Iranians are wondering how the next phase of the crisis in US relations will play out — and what, exactly, America’s long-term strategy is toward their country.
At least for now, the US is fixated on bringing as much diplomatic and economic pressure to Iran as possible — though it is not clear where things are headed, or if there is an increased risk of conflict.
The US walked out of the 2015 nuclear deal in May and is bringing back “maximum pressure” sanctions for most sectors on Aug 6, and the energy sector on Nov 4.
As of 0401 GMT Tuesday, the Iran government can no longer buy US banknotes and broad sanctions will be slapped on Iranian industries, including its rug exports.
After months of fierce rhetoric, Trump surprised observers last week when he offered to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani “any time” — and without preconditions.
The dramatic about-face, which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo quickly tamped down, came just days after the enigmatic US president and Rouhani traded barbs.
Trump at one point unleashed a Twitter tirade in which he blasted, using all caps, Rouhani’s “DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE”.
He was responding to a July 22 warning from Rouhani that the US should not “play with the lion’s tail” and warned that any conflict with Iran would be the “mother of all wars.”
Trump’s offer for dialogue came after Pompeo seemed to suggest support for a change in Iran leadership, telling an audience of Iranian expats in California that the regime had been a “nightmare”.
And John Bolton, the president’s national security advisor, is a well-known Iran hawk who has advocated for regime change.
“For Bolton and others, pressure is an end in and of itself,” Suzanne Maloney, deputy director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, told AFP.
For the administration, “if it leads to a wholesale capitulation fine, if it leads to regime change, even better,” she added.
Trump’s pressure campaign appears to have had some results.
For instance, US officials in recent years have accused both the regular Iranian navy and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps of routinely harassing American warships in the Gulf.
But this year, to the surprise of some military officials, there have been no such incidents.
If Iran senses “American steel they back down, if they perceive American mush they push forward — and right now they perceive steel,” said Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that lobbied for a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal.
Dubowitz, who noted that Iran has tested fewer missiles of late, said Trump’s rhetoric and position on Iran actually lowers the risk of escalation toward conflict.
“He’s assuming that if he talks tough, that will bolster the credibility of American military power,” Dubowitz told AFP.
Both Trump and Rouhani are due to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York next month.
It’s not inconceivable a meeting on the sidelines could occur then — Tehran will be looking anxiously to a November deadline for oil buyers to stop purchasing Iranian crude.
Over the weekend Trump once again floated the idea of meeting, tweeting “I will meet, or not meet, it doesn’t matter — it is up to them!”
“Iran, and its economy, is going very bad, and fast!” he said in the same missive.
US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on July 27 there was no policy that had been put in place with the goal of collapsing or changing the Iranian regime.
“We need them to change their behavior on a number of threats they can pose with their military, with their secret services, with their surrogates and with their proxies,” Mattis told Pentagon reporters.
Experts see a number of possible outcomes for the current US policy toward Iran.
Sanctions and diplomatic pressure could pile enough pressure on the regime that it comes to the negotiating table — something Trump has advocated for.
Iranian diplomat
Saudi Arabia has agreed to admit an Iranian diplomat to head an office representing Iranian interests in the kingdom, the official Iranian news agency IRNA reported on Sunday, in a rare move after the rivals broke off relations in 2016.
“An informed diplomatic source said Sunday that Saudi Arabia had agreed to grant a visa to the head ... of Iran’s interests section,” IRNA reported. “Observers saw this ... as a positive diplomatic step in Tehran-Riyadh relations.”
The office is expected to be set up within the Swiss diplomatic mission in Saudi Arabia, based on an agreement signed in 2017.
There was no immediate official Saudi reaction to the Iranian report.
The kingdom, the regional rival of mostly Shi’ite Iran, presents itself as the guardian of Islamic orthodoxy and custodian of its holiest places in Makkah and Madinah.
Riyadh severed diplomatic relations after Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran following the execution of a Shi’ite cleric in Saudi Arabia in January 2016.
Both countries agreed to Switzerland’s offer of its traditional policy of good offices and to act as a diplomatic channel between the two countries.
Gulf drills
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed on Sunday it had held war games in the Gulf over the past several days, saying they were aimed at “confronting possible threats” by enemies, the state news state news agency IRNA reported.
US officials told Reuters on Thursday that the United States believed Iran had started carrying out naval exercises in the Gulf, apparently moving up the timing of annual drills amid heightened tensions with Washington.
“This exercise was conducted with the aim of controlling and safeguarding the safety of the international waterway and within the framework of the programme of the Guards’ annual military exercises,” Guards spokesman Ramezan Sharif said, according to IRNA.
The US military’s Central Command on Wednesday confirmed it has seen increased Iranian naval activity. The activity extended to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for oil shipments the Revolutionary Guards have threatened to block.