Ohio, Kansas races too close to call

Democratic optimism, women advance

WESTERVILLE, Ohio, Aug 8, (AP): Two high-stakes elections that tested President Donald Trump's clout and cost both parties millions of dollars were too close to call early Wednesday. Trump claimed victory in one nevertheless.

In battleground Ohio, the president took credit for Republican Troy Balderson's performance, calling it "a great victory," even though the contest could be headed to a recount. Democrats could also celebrate their showing in a district that has gone Republican for decades.

"We're not stopping now," Democrat Danny O'Connor told cheering supporters. He'll reprise his campaign against Balderson from now through November's general election.

In deep-red Kansas ' Republican gubernatorial primary, the candidate Trump backed on the eve of the election, Secretary of State Kris Kobach, was neck and neck with current Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer.

The day's races in five states, like many before them, tested the persistence of Trump's fiery supporters and the momentum of the Democratic Party's antiTrump resistance.

The results were helping determine the political landscape – and Trump's standing within his own party – as the GOP defends its House and Senate majorities this fall.

In Kansas, Republicans were fighting among themselves in an unusual battle for governor in which the president sided with the incumbent's challenger.

Should the polarizing Kobach win the primary, some Republican operatives fear he could lose the governorship to Democrats this fall. The race could become further disrupted if Kansas Cityarea businessman Greg Orman makes it onto the November ballot. He submitted petitions Monday with more than 10,000 signatures for what could become the most serious independent run for Kansas governor in decades.

Trump made his preference clear for Kobach.

"He is a fantastic guy who loves his State and our Country – he will be a Great Governor and has my full & total Endorsement! Strong on Crime, Border & Military," the president tweeted on the eve of the election.

Republicans were hoping for Democratic discord in Kansas' 3rd Congressional District, a suburban Kansas City district where several candidates were fighting for the chance to take on Republican Rep Kevin Yoder in November.

The five-way Democratic primary featured labor lawyer Brent Welder, who campaigned recently with self-described democratic socialists Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and ascending political star, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York congressional candidate.

Also in the race: Native American attorney Sharice Davids and former school teacher Tom Niermann.

In Ohio, the script for the special election was somewhat familiar: An experienced Trump loyalist, Balderson, was fighting a strong challenge from O'Connor, a fresh-faced Democrat, in a congressional district held by the Republican Party for more than three decades. As voters were going to the polls, Trump said Balderson would make a "great congressman."

The winner takes the seat previously held by Pat Tiberi, a nine-term incumbent who resigned to take a job with an Ohio business group.

Balderson and O'Connor will reprise their race in the general election in just three months. There were at least 3,367 provisional ballots left to be reviewed. That's enough for O'Connor to potentially pick up enough to force a recount.

The Associated Press does not declare winners in races subject to an automatic recount.

In a special election season that featured nearly a dozen congressional contests, Democrats claimed just a handful of wins, but they may have cause for optimism this fall. In virtually every special election test dating back to the spring of 2017, Democratic candidates performed significantly better than their party in those same places two years earlier.

Trump won Ohio's 12th Congressional District, for example, by more than 11 points in 2016; on Tuesday night, Balderson and O'Connor were separated by less than 1 point.

Competitive

There are 79 House races this fall considered more competitive than the Ohio district – at least looking at Trump's 2016 performance – according to data compiled by the Democrats' national campaign committee.

Despite the deadlocked race, the specific Ohio returns suggest considerably higher Democratic enthusiasm less than 100 days before the midterms.

O'Connor's total of nearly 100,000 votes far exceeded what the district's former Republican congressman Pat Tiberi's Democratic opponent got in 2014. Balderson's total – just more than 101,500 votes – is barely two-thirds of Tiberi's 2014 mark of about 150,000.

The two will face off again in November to see who holds the seat in 2019 and 2020.

"Over the next three months, I'm going to do everything I can to keep America great again, so that when we come back here in November – get ready, we gotta come back here in November – I have earned your vote for a second time," Balderson told supporters.

It's unclear how much Trump's support helped or hurt Balderson. Described by campaign operatives as a "Whole Foods" district, the largely suburban region features a more affluent and educated voter base than the typical Trump stronghold.

Ohio Gov John Kasich, a leading voice in the GOP's shrinking antiTrump wing, once represented the district in Congress.

At times, the race centered on Trump's tax cuts as much as the candidates.

Democrats didn't walk away with a clear win Tuesday night. But they didn't have to. They essentially battled Republicans to a draw in a central Ohio congressional district that should have been an easy win for the GOP. Even a tooclose-to-call result was a sign of Democratic momentum and offered clues for how to run in November.

Some takeaways from another round of voting ahead of the fall midterm elections:

Urban-Rural-Suburban Splits Preview November Battles

Democrat Danny O'Connor's strong showing in Ohio's 12th Congressional District offers his party a roadmap to the House majority: Galvanize suburbanites to join the party's urban base and offset the Republican advantage in rural areas.

O'Connor came close to upsetting Republican Troy Balderson by running up his numbers closest to Columbus, performing better than Democrats recently have in the district's suburban core, and even managing to dent the GOP advantage in rural areas. O'Connor won 65 percent of the vote in precincts closest to heavily Democratic Columbus. He ran ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential marks across the district: about 6 percentage points ahead of her mark in vote-rich Delaware, small-town Licking and rural Morrow counties.

Far from the city, Balderson answered with his own wide margins, peaking at 69 percent in rural Morrow County. In suburban Delaware County, Balderson led by 8 percentage points.

Many of the districts Democrats are hoping to flip in November are more favorable to them than the Ohio 12th. If they can compete there, they're well positioned in the key battlegrounds.

The Year Of Women Continues

There will be at least eight Democratic women running for governor in November.

Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Laura Kelly of Kansas joined the list Tuesday. Both will face Republican men. Unlike some of their fellow Democratic nominees in other states, neither would become their state's first female governors. Whitmer and Kelly both have extensive records as legislative leaders and pitch themselves as get-it-done pragmatists. That's not in line with some of the headliners of the #MeToo era and the anti-Trump resistance movement, but it may be Democrats' best shot to flip two governor's mansions that Republicans have held since 2011.

Two all-female races are set in Washington state. Democrat Lisa Brown, a university administrator and former state lawmaker, will take on Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the highest-ranking female House Republican, in an eastern Washington seat. Former state Republican chairwoman Susan Hutchison will try to unseat Sen. Maria Cantwell.