Russian central bank raises interest rates

MOSCOW, Sept 15, (AFP): Russia’s central bank on Friday raised its interest rates for the first time since a currency crisis in 2014 as worries about emerging market turmoil and Western sanctions batter the ruble.

The Bank of Russia said in a statement it was lifting its benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 7.5 percent and could raise it again in the future to rein in any acceleration in inflation.

“Changes in external conditions” since the bank’s last policy meeting in July “have significantly increased pro-inflationary risks,” the statement said.

The bank cited growing uncertainty over Western sanctions as well as capital outflow from emerging markets.

The move came as a surprise: Analysts had been pencilling in no change in borrowing rates from this meeting, after rates remained unchanged since March 2017.

Upgrading the bank’s inflation forecast for next year to 5.0-5.5 percent from 4.0 percent previously, Bank of Russia chief Elvira Nabiullina told journalists that the weakening of the ruble observed in August “could fuel a further rise in inflation expectations”.

“The Bank of Russia will consider the necessity of further increases in the key rate, taking into account inflation and economic dynamics against the forecast, as well as risks posed by external conditions and the reaction of financial markets,” the statement said.

The central bank also announced it would halt its purchases of foreign currency – aimed at balancing effects of the oil price and stabilising the ruble – until the end of the year.

The bank said this was intended “to curtail exchange rate volatility and its influence on inflation over the next few quarters.”

Since the latest round of US sanctions and under the threat of further measures, the ruble has dropped sharply in value against the dollar and euro.

The central bank’s latest rate raise immediately pushed up the value of the ruble against the dollar and euro after it had fallen further at the beginning of this week.

In the minutes after the announcement, the dollar and euro fell against the ruble. At around 1500 GMT the euro was exchanged for 79.36 rubles on the Moscow stock exchange and the dollar at 68.05 rubles.

On Monday the dollar broke the symbolic barrier of 70 rubles and the euro rose to more than 81.75 rubles, levels not seen since March 2016.

The fall in the ruble’s value since August “has made the Bank much more concerned about inflation next year,” said analysts London-based Capital Economics.

The central bank was also acting “to stem capital outflows resulting from fears about new US sanctions,” the analyst note said.

The Bank of Russia last increased its benchmark lending rate to 17 percent in Dec 2014 in an emergency move aimed at stemming a dramatic decline in the ruble amid falling oil prices and Western sanctions at the time.

The announcement of the new rate hike immediately bolstered the value of the ruble against the dollar and euro.

The central bank is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on Oct 26.