‘hard Brexit’ would hit German auto industry hard: economists

A no-deal Brexit could affect more than 100,000 jobs in Germany, and regions of the country with Volkswagen and BMW factories would be among those worst hit, according to economists at a prominent nonprofit institute.

The economists from the Halle Institute for Economic Research said Monday they modeled what would happen if imports to Britain from the remaining European Union countries fell 25 percent due to the absence of a negotiated trade agreement when Britain leaves the EU. ,

After calculating the effects – in theory – on 401 German regions, the researchers found the auto industry would be the sector most affected. They said the city of Wolfsburg in northcentral Germany, where Volkswagen is headquartered, was one of the places that would see the most jobs affected. So would the Dingolfing-Landau region in southern Bavaria, where BMW has manufacturing facilities.

Another region that would be hit is the Maerkischer Kreis region in western Germany, where there are many exportoriented small and mediumsize firms.

The authors, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch and Oliver Holtemoeller, cautioned the figures do not predict the precise numbers of people who would be laid off. Companies could put workers on shorter hours or find other markets.

Still, “a hard Brexit would disrupt global value creation chains,” Holtemoeller said in a statement accompanying the report. (AP)