Global factory woes persist in October
Uncertainty on trade talks weighs on sentiment
TOKYO/NEW YORK, Nov 2, (RTRS): Factory activity in key global economies contracted again in October as cooling demand and trade tensions kept policymakers busy trying to dodge recession.
Purchasing managers’ index reports from the United States, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, among others, showed the global uncertainty spawned by trade spats and Brexit continued to keep a lid on factory output.
In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management said its widely followed manufacturing PMI ticked up in October from a 10-year low in September, but activity slowed overall for a third straight month.
“Global trade remains the most significant cross-industry issue,” said Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee. “Overall, sentiment this month remains cautious regarding near-term growth.”
The ongoing Brexit saga was again a factor in Britain, where a renewed rush to stockpile ahead of another aborted UK departure deadline limited losses for British manufacturers, though not by enough to prevent a sixth month of contraction.
Manufacturing activity in North Asia contracted with Japan sinking to a more than three-year low in October on shrinking new orders and output; activity in South Korea and Taiwan also contracted as companies bore the brunt of slumping demand across the globe.
In China, meanwhile, a private sector report on Friday showed a surprising pick-up in China’s factory activity, but this was in contrast to an official factory gauge the day before that pointed to further deterioration.
The Caixin survey showed China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in well over two years in October as new export orders rose and plants ramped up production. But the official survey suggested a weak start to the fourth quarter for big state firms.
Overall, the soft batch of leading indicators highlights the broadening pain the bitter Sino-US trade war is inflicting on business sentiment, which forced the International Monetary Fund to slash its economic growth forecast for Asia.
“The slump in exports remains the true Achilles’ heel ... with headwinds coming from all directions,” said Joe Hayes, economist at IHS Markit, on South Korea’s PMI.
“As well as US-Sino trade frictions, tensions with Japan and a stagnating European economy have significantly dented order book volumes at South Korean manufacturers,” he said.
Among the Group of Seven major economies, only Canada so far has reported an expansion of manufacturing activity for October, posting a modest gain for a second straight month.
Germany and Italy are both expected to report additional declines in reports due out on Monday, while France may report a nominal increase.
Increased uncertainty from the trade war and Britain’s divorce from the European Union have prodded central banks to top up monetary support to fend off external headwinds.
The US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates on Wednesday for the third time this year. South Korea’s central bank also cut rates in October and kept the door open for further easing to support a flagging economy.
The Bank of Japan kept policy steady on Thursday but gave the strongest signal to date that it may cut rates in the near future, shrugging off concerns it has run out of tools to spur growth after years of heavy money printing.
“It’s true the two countries appear to be making some progress towards a solution, and that markets are taking this positively,” BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told a news conference on Thursday. “But I wouldn’t say risks have deteriorated.”
Fresh concerns over whether Washington and Beijing can iron out their differences resurfaced on Friday after Bloomberg reported Chinese officials have doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term solution to the trade war. The nearly 16-months long trade war is placing increasing strain on the global economy and may see policymakers resort to a more aggressive mix of fiscal and monetary measures in the coming months.
Factory activity contracted in Malaysia and Indonesia, which saw PMIs hitting a four-year low. Activity was flat in Vietnam.
Japan’s exports contracted for a 10th straight month in September, casting doubt on whether the world’s third-largest economy can sustain an expansion as households take a hit from a sales tax hike that went into effect in October.